Luis Alcaide | The synthetic indicator of export activity prepared by the Ministry of Economy and Trade for the fourth quarter of 2024 shows a slight increase in the order book of around 0.6% for the first three months of 2025. Likewise, the twelve-month outlook maintains an even more modest but positive percentage. Flickering lights on the future of exports in the current year.
The order book indicator has accurately marked the evolution of merchandise exports in the recent period from 2020 to 2024: a drop in sales due to the pandemic and a rapid recovery in subsequent periods. Indeed, there were record sales in 2021-2022, with those achievements maintained in 2023 and 2024.
The results by exporting sectors from the order book show a notable advance in “food and beverages,” initially confirmed by actual figures from January 2025. Positive increases are also seen in durable goods and consumer manufactures. In the “automobiles” category, the forecast for future exports is negative both in order book records and in January 2025 figures.
The evolution of the export order book in the fourth quarter of 2024 by geographical areas shows stability in the EU market and significant declines in the rest of Europe. However, in the first month of the year, sales to the EU are lower than those in January 2024. Exports are slightly down in North America and slightly up in Latin America. Finally, there are slightly more optimistic forecasts regarding the markets in Asia, Africa, and Oceania.
In summary, a fairly stable outlook but with more pessimistic than optimistic indicators. The survey does not detect dark clouds, but it is worth remembering that the forecasts for the order books were made before President Trump’s inauguration.
