For the Spanish economy 2015 may be a mini boom

For the first time since 2007, public investment will grow in 2015 –although it will remain below 2013 levels. The adjustment of the Spanish economy, initiated by former PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero in May 2010 and then continued by PM Mariano Rajoy, has produced results. Besides, the government, together with Mario Draghi and Saudi Arabia’s oil policy, has been lucky. Labour reform and the internal devaluation have worked reasonably well.

The economic policy is still debatable, but is has not failed. Furthermore, it was the only possible choice (except for the crazy idea of leaving the Euro). The underlying problem (i.e. exports grow again one third less than imports: 3% against 8.8% in the first 10 months), which triggers the trade deficit and threatens the balance of the balance of payments, is still there.

Anyway, the fall in the oil price gives a margin. However, the external imbalance shows that the change in the productive model towards an economy with a higher added value is making a too slow progress. Probably it is unavoidable, but the threat is that the institutional and the enterprise policy (not only the governmental) don’t give it importance due to the medium and long-term subjects.