Bankinter | Before revising its estimates, Aena is looking at whether the strong acceleration in the recovery of the airline sector this summer is a flash in the pan. The study has arisen after ACI Europe improved its forecasts. It now estimates a recovery of 78% of traffic levels prior to the Covid virus on average in Europe vs 68% previously. These are the forecasts Aena used as a basis to present its regulatory proposal (DORA II) and it assumed an estimate of 187,3 M passengers in 2022.
Bankinter analyst team’s opinion:
Good news. The important thing is that the number of passengers is recovering quicker than forecast. We believe that Aena’s current estimates are very conservative. However, this is somewhat common, particularly ahead of considering the regulatory framework. We are forecasting 236,4 million passengers for Aena for 2022e, 26% higher than the company’s own forecast. This would imply a recovery of 85% of pre-Covid levels. Despite that, we are maintaining our Neutral recommendation. The tariff framework leaves Aena in a somewhat vulnerable position in the face of high inflation. Tariffs will not increase until at least 2026, while inflation will mean a significant hike in costs. As a result, we foresee the EBIDTA margin falling by 7 p.p 2026e vs 2019.
AENA (Neutral; T.P: 145,0 euros/share)