Intermoney| Aena (AENA) (Hold, €150/share) announced on Tuesday, with the market open, the passenger and freight traffic figures for the month of November. Over the entire month, the number of passengers, 19.7 million, represented an increase of almost 8% compared to the same period in 2019. On this occasion, both Barajas and El Prat returned to growth compared to pre-pandemic, with increases of 1% and 4%, respectively. Malaga, Spain’s third largest airport, was up 26% this time, while numerous tourist airports also recorded double-digit growth, such as Tenerife-South (20%) or Alicante (15%). So far this year, traffic is up 2% compared to 2019, although Barajas and El Prat still remain in negative figures with falls of 3% and 6%, respectively, being the only two really relevant facilities in this situation in Spain.
Assessment: Traffic is performing strongly in these last months of the year, and looks set to exceed our forecast for 2023 as a whole, which is +2.1% compared to 2019. Normally, December behaves very similarly to November. We expect Aena to reach EBITDA of €2.8bn in 23e, exceeding pre-pandemic levels by almost 1%, thanks to an exceptional performance in commercial activity, up 18%, which would offset the 21% drop in Aeronautics. International activity would more than double its contribution compared to 2019 due to the subsequent acquisition of two airport lots in Brazil. After three years without a dividend payment, the operator could close 23e with a net debt of around €5.5bn, some €1.1bn lower than in 2019; we expect a dividend of €4.81/share charged to the current year.
