Jefferies | While the 1Q25 print was a welcomed 14% net income beat, this was mainly driven by better other revenues and impairments, which we think the market will look through to some extent. Elsewhere, core dynamics are progressing as expected and FY25 guidance is reiterated. €148m special banking tax accrual, in line with the near-€600m guidance for FY25.
CaixaBank reported 1Q25 attributable profit of €1,470m, a 14% beat versus company-compiled consensus of €1,294m. PBT was a 16% beat, with pre-provision profit an 8% beat. Revenue was a 5% beat, and costs were in line with consensus. The print includes €148m special banking tax accrual in relation to 2025 earnings, accounted for in the tax line, partly offset by +€67m positive impact from the write-up of off-balance sheet DTAs.
- NII was 1% below cons., down 3% quarter-on-quarter and down 5% year-on-year. Customer spreads were down 11bp in the quarter, with loan yield down 24bp and client funds costs down 13bp. ALCO portfolio increased €4.6bn in the quarter, and the structural hedge also increased €3.5bn in the quarter.
- Wealth Management + Protection Insurance + Banking fees were 2% above consensus, with strong dynamics in WM revenues and banking fees given strong start in CIB. Other revenues at €87m compares to -€103m in consensus, and include higher equity accounted income and BFA dividend .
- Total costs were in line with consensus.
- Total impairments and other gains at -€245m vs. consensus of -€357m. Annualized cost of risk 20bp, well below FY25 guidance.
- Customer loans were in line with consensus, up 1% quarter-on-quarter and up 3% year-on-year.
- Customer deposits were 2% above consensus, up 3% quarter-on-quarter and up 8% year-on-year.
- Capital: CET1 ratio of 12.5% was 10bps above consensus and includes +20bp impact from Basel 4. CET1 was in line with consensus, with RWAs 1% lighter.
- 2025 guidance maintained: NII to be down year-on-year MSD. Revenue from services to be up LSD to MSD year-on-year. Costs to be up c5% year-on-year. Cost of risk to be <30bp. RoTE expected at c16%. Dividend payout range 50-60%.
