Bankinter | Results and guidance surprisingly positive. Dividends on the rise. Dividend yield 2025 4.90%. Key figures compared with consensus: total EBITDA €16,848M (up 17%) versus €16,243M est.; NBI €5,612M (up 17%) versus €5,550M estimated; adjusted NBI €5,530M up 15%. Funds generated by operations: €11,836 million (up 10%); Net Debt €51,700 million versus €47,914 million in December 2023. The dividend per share on 2024 results rises 15% to €0.6350/share. The management team anticipates adjusted NBI growth for 2025 of between mid-single digit and high single digit.
Analysis team opinion: Good news on results, guidance and dividends. EPS is up 17% to €5,612M versus €5,550M estimated. Positive factors: (i) Growth in the regulated asset base in networks and tariff reviews; (ii) Improvement in the supply margin and (ii) Record hydroelectric generation and new renewable capacity. These factors more than compensate for the lower contribution from the gas business and the absence of some positive non-recurring income that it recorded in 2023 (recovery of the tariff deficit in the UK). The guidance for 2025 (growth in adjusted NBI for 2025 of between mid-single digit and high single digit) would point to an adjusted NBI of €5.95 billion in the middle of the range and this compares with a consensus estimate of below €5.8 billion. Following these results, we maintain our Buy recommendation. Reasons: (i) Strategic positioning The group is a clear winner in the process of increased electrification and rapid decarbonisation that the new energy model faces. Its positioning in networks and renewables, geographical diversification and a solid financial structure allow it to capture opportunities in the new energy transition scenario (ii) Growth. The 2026 Strategic Plan envisages a medium/high single-digit growth in BNA in the period 2023-2026, with a high possibility that this will be revised upwards in the next update in September; (iii) Shift towards a more visible and less volatile business profile. On the one hand, most future investments are directed at the networks business, which is subject to predictable regulatory frameworks. On the other hand, in the generation business, long-term contracts (PPAs) are increasing so as not to depend on market volatility; (iv) Attractive valuation ratios: 2025 P/E of 15.7x and 4.9% dividend yield.
