Spanish economy starts 2023 stronger than anticipated, growing 0.5% in Q1 and 3.8% in last year

Economia España

Bankinter : Preliminary Q1 2023 GDP +3.8% year-on-year (versus +3.1% expected and +2.9% year-on-year in Q4 2022 revised up by 0.3 percentage points. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of +0.5% (versus +0.3% quarter-on-quarter estimated and +0.4% quarter-on-quarter foreseen revised up two tenths). The implicit GDP deflator stands at +6.2% year-on-year (+1.1 p.p. versus the last quarter).

The analysis team’s view: it has been a stronger start to 2023 than was expected. Manufacturing and Services PMIs were both already in the expansionary zone. The decline in energy and gas prices has been key to this performance. Despite this, yesterday the Q1 2023 unemployment rate rose for the third consecutive quarter (to 13.26%).

Projections point to growth of around 1.3% year-on-year for 2023 and 2.2% for 2024.

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