The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for Spain was unchanged in June, following two consecutive monthly increases. Between December 2012 and June 2013, the leading index increased by 1.1 percent (about a 2.3 percent annual rate), slower than its 1.9 percent increase (about a 3.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined in June. The coincident economic index decreased by 0.7 percent (about a -1.5 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending in June 2013, an improvement from its decline of 2.6 percent (about a -5.1 percent annual rate) in previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have remained more widespread than the strengths. Meanwhile, real GDP declined by 0.4 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter, according to the flash estimate by Instituto Nacinal de Estadistica (INE), after declining by 2.1 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter.
The LEI for Spain remains at its highest level since October 2011, though its six-month growth rate has slowed recently. Meanwhile, the CEI for Spain has been trending downward for almost two years; however, the pace of its decline has moderated since the beginning of 2013. Taken together, the recent behaviour of the composite indexes suggests that the current contraction in the economy will continue easing in the near term.
Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in June. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are job vacancies, order books survey, and the capital equipment component of industrial production. The negative contributors — in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — are the long-term government bond yield (inverted), the Spanish equity price index, and Spanish contribution to Euro M2.
After remaining unchanged in June, The Conference Board LEI for Spain stands at 105.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in May and increased 0.7 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 1.1 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).
Two of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in June. The positive contributors are final household consumption and real imports. Employment, retail sales survey, and industrial production excluding construction declined in June.
With the decrease of 0.3 percent in June, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 93.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in May and remained unchanged in April. During the six-month span through June, the index decreased 0.7 percent, and two of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 40.0 percent).
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