Caixabank Research | Households and corporate debt levels (including debt securities) remain below euro area averages in 4Q23. Both sectors have deleveraged in terms of GDP, reaching levels lowee than pre-pandemic ones.
New mortgage production recovers in early 2024 with the change in interest rate expectations.
New lending for consumption increases favored by improvements in consumer confidence, and credit for consumer durables, exceeding pre-COVID-19 levels.
New lending to corporates grows both in loans under €1 million and in larger ones.
Consequently, the stock of credit to the Spanish resident private sector is moderating its fall rate. We expect credit levels to stabilize in absolute terms during 2024 and start growing next year, albeit at a rate below nominal GDP growth