Bankinter | Weak Q1 2025 results, affected by the fall in oil prices. Guidelines maintained despite the complex context. BNA figures versus market consensus estimates: Exploration and Production €458 million (+3.6%) versus €382 million estimated, Industrial €131 million (-82.1%) versus €192 million estimated; Customer €160 million (-2.6%) versus €157 million estimated, Low Carbon Generation €5 million versus €7 million estimated. Key figures compared with market consensus: Revenue €14,408 million (-5.1% year-on-year) versus €11,793 million estimated; EBITDA €1,294 million (-24%) versus €1, 904 million estimated; NFA €366 million (€969 million in Q1 24) versus €616.4 million estimated; EPS €0.30 (versus €0.79 in Q1 24) versus €0.532 estimated. Production stands at 540mbd (in line with preliminary figures published on 7 April and compared with 590mbd in Q1 2024). Net debt increased slightly to €5,830 million versus €5,008 million in Q4 2024.
Shareholder remuneration remains unchanged: the company estimates a distribution of €0.975 per share in 2025, representing an increase of +8.3% versus 2024. Looking ahead to 2025, it forecasts operating cash flow in the estimated range of €5.5 billion/€6 billion, investments of €3 billion/€3.5 billion and divestments of €2 billion.
Analysis team’s opinion: Weak results, affected by the fall in oil prices (Brent $75.7 in the quarter vs $83.2 in Q1 2024), lower refining margins and falling volumes. In addition, there is an increase in debt. The good news is that it is not lowering its estimates despite the complex environment. In our opinion, Repsol has a healthy balance sheet, trades at attractive multiples and offers high shareholder remuneration. Despite this, the downward trend in oil prices leads us to maintain our Sell recommendation for the entire sector.
