Bankinter: House Prices rise +2.1% in 2Q2023 (q/q). The Housing Price Index, compiled by the INE (National Statistics Institute), points to a slight rise in prices of +2.1% in Q2 2023 (q/q). In year-on-year terms it remains positive (+3.6% vs +3.5% previously). Second-hand housing rises +2.2% year-on-year, while new builds are up +1.7% year-on-year.
Assessment: We estimate that housing prices will moderate towards a cumulative decline of -5% between 2023-2024, reflecting: (i) Higher cost of mortgage financing, in an environment of rising interest rates; (ii) Lower household savings rate, due to higher prices in basic consumer goods (energy and food); and (iii) Less attractive investment in rental housing, with a yield similar to the Spanish 10-year bond.
