Intermoney | Aena (Buy, PO €205) yesterday announced its monthly traffic data for October. Passenger numbers in Spain rose 6% year-on-year last month to 28.2 million. Both Barajas and El Prat grew by more than 5%, a figure that was not out of line with the rest of the relevant airports, outperforming for example Valencia (up 4%) and Ibiza (down 1%). The national total in October was 14% higher than the pre-pandemic figure. Year-to-date traffic grew 9% to €266.1 million, or up 11% on pre-pandemic figures, with increases compared to 2023 at Barajas and El Prat of 10-11%. Aena reported traffic at the rest of its foreign assets, which in general reported year-on-year increases of around 5%, especially at ANB (Brazil).
Assessment: Traffic in Spain continues its slow moderation in traffic growth, which peaked last March (up 13%), and which we expect to close the year slightly below 9%. For 2025 and beyond we are cautious, and do not think that the figures of 2024 will be repeated, as increases would be around 4% next year, and no more than 2.5% thereafter. Aena reported its 9-month results on 30 October, in which EBITDA grew by +26% to €2,663 million, already much higher than the €2,137 million pre-pandemic, the difference being in the commercial activities and the contribution of the new assets abroad, acquired since then.
