Bankinter | Consumer Confidence (March) disappoints, moderating to 92.9 against the 94.0 expected and 100.1 previous (revised from 98.3). It is at its lowest level since January 2021 and is the fourth consecutive month of decline. By components: (i) Current Situation: 134.5 versus 138.1 previous (revised from 136.5); (ii) Expectations: 65.2 versus 74.8 previous (revised from 72.9). (ii) Fed Richmond Manufacturing Activity Indicator (March): -4 versus 1 expected and 6 previous. (iii) Fed Richmond Services Activity Indicator (March): -6 versus 13 previous. (iv) Fed Philadelphia Services Activity Indicator (March): -32.5 versus -13.1 previous.
Analysis team’s view: This record shows greater pessimism about the evolution of the economy and, above all, inflation after the first measures applied by Trump. Greater tariff tensions are not good for the American economy itself and the current moment of uncertainty on this issue is reflected in this indicator. This mix of weak figures continues to cast doubt on the evolution of the economy in the coming months and the actions of the Fed. Our scenario points to two rate cuts of 25 bps each at the September and December meetings this year, down to the 3.75%/4.00% range.
