Reported by Bankinter
OPEC has reduced its estimate for global demand growth in 2026, but increased it for 2027. It estimates that demand will rise by 1.17 Mbd compared to the previously forecast 1.38 Mbd. For next year, it estimates 1.54 Mbd, which is 200,000 bpd higher than the previous estimate. In Q2 2026, it estimates that demand will reach 104.5 Mbd vs the previous 105.07 Mbd.
Analysis team’s view: This reduction is due to the impact of the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz; however, the key point is that this demand will subsequently recover. Furthermore, it is not revising its global economic growth forecast despite the tensions (3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027). This forecast is surprising because the modest reduction in demand estimates is not consistent with the actual impact it has had on supply. As a reference, in March OPEC production stood at 34.9 Mbd, representing a reduction of almost 8 Mbd compared to February (42.8 Mbd), and in April it fell again to 33.2 Mbd. Furthermore, these figures include the UAE, a country that left OPEC on 1 May.
On the other hand, this contrasts with the IEA’s forecast, which warns of an expected deficit in the oil market: it estimates that supply will be 1.78 million bpd below demand this year. It also notes that losses exceed 1,000 million barrels (10 days of global supply), implying a sharp fall in inventories and price volatility. All this will be accompanied by a reduction in demand of 420,000 bpd. Finally, the IEA refers to inventories: it warns that they are falling at the fastest rate ever recorded. In April, stocks fell by 4 million bpd. The fall is significant because inventories act as a buffer against supply shocks. Our central scenario anticipates that the war will result in lower supply, affected by attacks on infrastructure in the Gulf. We therefore expect high oil prices: Brent crude will close the year at $85 per barrel and 2027 at $80.
