Bankinter | OPEC could accelerate production increase in June. According to press reports, several members are considering an increase in production. As a reference, OPEC will increase its production by 138,000bd in April and 411,000bd from May onwards. OPEC has the objective of bringing 2.2Mbd to market and, if this increase is maintained, it would achieve its objective in September this year, compared to July 2026, as predicted in April. As a reference, OPEC+ (including other countries such as Russia and Mexico) produces 41Mbd (slightly more than 40% of global supply).
Bankinter analysis team’s view: Negative news for several reasons: (i) last week OPEC presented its global demand estimates and they included a reduction. They estimate that demand will increase by 1.3mbd in 2025 and 1.28mbd in 2026, in both cases a reduction of 0.150mbd compared to the previous estimate. This increase amounts to approximately 1.2% of global supply each year. Therefore, the measure combines lower demand and higher production. (ii) It highlights the strong divergence of views within OPEC and is a response to several countries that are producing in excess of their quotas. The most striking one is Kazakhstan: 1.852Mbd versus 1.468Mbd target. Moreover, we estimate that this tension between them will become more acute in the coming months, given that a scenario of price moderation, due to a slowdown in the economy, the rise of clean energy and greater efficiency, will lead members to try to produce more to compensate for this fall in prices.
