Crédito y Caución | Five markets are particularly poised to offer new opportunities for exporters and investors as the global economy continues its bumpy post-pandemic recovery: Côte d’Ivoire, Israel, Qatar, Taiwan and Uruguay. All five markets meet three criteria: good GDP recovery prospects, effective containment of the pandemic, and increased institutional stability of their economic policies and institutions.
We expect Côte d’Ivoire to enjoy one of the highest GDP growth rates in the world in the coming years, with a forecast of 6.9% by 2022. Despite the very low vaccination rate, the economy has come out of the pandemic well. Côte d’Ivoire is a major agricultural producer, a world leader in the export of cocoa and cashew nuts, which offers opportunities in the agro-industrial processing sector. The ambitious National Development Plan 2021-25 aims to improve the business environment, which will increase demand for IT services and digital economy. The energy sector is another niche opportunity to consider, as Côte d’Ivoire works to be a regional electricity hub with 42% from renewables by 2035.
In Israel, the success of the vaccination campaign holds out prospects for 5% growth in 2022, following a 6.5% expansion in 2021. Israel benefits from strong institutions and a stable business environment. Its highly skilled workforce and diversified economic base protect the strength of the economy, which offers opportunities in high-tech goods and services. Its recent adoption of electric vehicles-all new cars sold by 2030 must be electric vehicles-offers opportunities for exporters of electric vehicles and associated charging infrastructure.
In Qatar, hosting the World Cup will help drive opportunities in the non-oil sector. Tourism and hospitality should experience a strong boost as long as the pandemic remains under control. The transportation sector offers bright prospects, as Qatar aims to convert 25% of its public bus fleet to electric this year and install 600 charging stations. Its economic prospects are solid, backed by moderately low political risk and an ambitious diversification plan.
Taiwan has a strong business climate and its economy has hardly been affected by the pandemic. It is forecast to grow by 3% in 2022, driven by strong export growth. Taiwan is a well-known ICT manufacturing hub and a world leader in the production of intermediate electronic goods. As the global chip shortage persists until 2022, growth prospects in this sector remain bright. Thanks to the global orientation of its production of electronic intermediates, the sector is insulated from any national restrictions that might apply due to negative pandemic developments.
Uruguay is the best positioned market in its region in 2022. With a growth forecast of 3%, it will surpass its pre-crisis GDP levels by 2022. Although South America has been the region most affected by the pandemic, the rollout of vaccination in Uruguay has ensured that 77% of the population is fully vaccinated, which will support private consumption growth that offers growth opportunities in the automotive and electronics sectors. Demand for machinery to support agri-food activities is also expected to grow, barring adverse weather conditions. The country is increasingly investing in the renewable energy sector, especially wind power. With inflation at 8%, the monetary tightening cycle may be faster than expected, but we expect it to remain an orderly process thanks to the considerable levels of international reserves and institutional stability.
