Schroders | The world economy is set for its fastest year of growth in the 21st century this year, according to our latest forecasts. We now think global GDP is set to expand by 5.9% in 2021, having upgraded our previous forecast of 5.3%. As lockdowns ease, the service sector – which includes businesses such as restaurants and hotels – is driving the recovery in economic growth.
José Ramón Díez (CaixaBank Research) | While expected, the rise in inflation is causing discomfort due to the high levels that have been reached and the risk of it persisting at those levels for longer than desirable without investors being startled. The key is whether we are faced with an economy that is simply skidding around as it seeks to accelerate from 0 to 60 in a short time, in which case inertia will allow it to easily regain stability; or, on the contrary, overheating caused by an excessively expansive demand-focused policy could test the strength of the economic engine.
The US has proposed to sign an agreement on a global corporate minimum tax of 21%, with the aim of achieving a fair distribution of taxes between the jurisdictions where multinationals are based and the countries where their clients actually are. Europe’s reaction to the proposal has been positive. The aim is to sign an agreement at the G20 summit in July.
Atul Singh | The coronavirus outbreak is putting a clearly unsustainable global economy to the test.Coronavirus is China’s Chernobyl. It is finishing what Trump’s trade wars started. Global supply chains will change. Trade will slowdown. The decoupling of China and the US will continue. Even as these tectonic changes unfold, a global recession has become more probable.
These growth forecasts are dependent upon keeping geopolitical tensions in check, in addition to other risks threatening the world economy. Specifically, our scenario assumes that recent tensions between the US, Iran, and Iraq will have no permanent negative impact on the global environment. In particular, oil prices are expected to stabilize at about $61 per barrel over the next two years, below the average value recorded in 2019 ($ 64) or the current price ($ 68).
Miguel Navascués | The slope of the interest rate curve has become negative in several countries, among them the most important. As we know, whenever this happens there is a high probability that it is anticipating a recession, in this case global. Some countries will come out of this better than others, but the recession is highly likely.
How do I see the year 2018? Low growth and productivity, a declining working population, and an unsustainable rise in animal spirits. Everything comes to an end, and the longer it takes, the worse it is.
BoAML | After Brexit, we followed through on our scenario analysis, penciling in a full-blown UK recession, cutting 0.5% off of Euro Area growth and slicing 0.2% off of US and global growth. Events since Brexit have not changed our call. The pound has plunged more than 11% since the vote, and both consumer and business confidence have tumbled.
Jarno Lang | For the past 12 months, headlines over refugees and capsized boats have dominated the news agenda. The first month of 2016 was the deadliest January to date, counting casualties in the Mediterranean alone. The number of displaced people—about 60 million—is now on par with that experienced during World War II.