global economy

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Pandemic And Security Shocks Shake But Won’t Destroy Global Value Chains

Theo Smid (Atradius) | We do not expect a major shift in production strategy following Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It could lead to some strategic reorientation, but no major step back on the globalisation ladder. The most important argument is that the key rationale of global value chains – labour cost arbitrage opportunities – still holds and the alternatives to GVCs are not necessarily better.


de globalization

The Five Most Promising Markets For 2022: Uruguay, Côte d’Ivoire, Israel, Qatar And Taiwan

Crédito y Caución | Five markets are particularly poised to offer new opportunities for exporters and investors as the global economy continues its bumpy post-pandemic recovery: Côte d’Ivoire, Israel, Qatar, Taiwan and Uruguay. All five markets meet three criteria: good GDP recovery prospects, effective containment of the pandemic, and increased institutional stability of their economic policies and institutions. We expect Côte d’Ivoire to enjoy one of the highest GDP growth…


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Are We In A Better Or Worse Position Than We Expected?

CaixaBank Research (Oriol Aspachs) | No doubt you already have an opinion on this. We constantly hear qualified people emphatically and assertively stating their opinion about our current situation, about where we are headed and, what is even more difficult but much more tempting to predict, about what we have to do to change our destination. The world is overdiagnosed, as CIDOB states in its latest report on the 2022…


sustainability green planet

Global | An Update On The Global Outlook With A Focus On Inflation

Jorge Sicilia (BBVA Research) | Price pressures continue to build up; inflation is at high levels mainly in the US, but also in the Eurozone, while in China it remains still relatively low. The recovery will continue, but will lose momentum on the ongoing supply shocks and impact on inflation, which will lead CBs to act earlier, especially in the US.A solid demand recovery on stimuli, savings and vaccines, coupled…


Climate changes risks

The Uneven Effects Of Climate Change On The Global Economy

Irene Lauro (Schroders) | While climate change is affecting all regions around the world, global warming and precipitation rates will not be distributed evenly around the globe. There will be winners and losers. The effects of climate change – and what it could cost investors – will vary significantly around the world.


new world order

Could Global Growth This Year Be The Fastest This Century?

Schroders | The world economy is set for its fastest year of growth in the 21st century this year, according to our latest forecasts. We now think global GDP is set to expand by 5.9% in 2021, having upgraded our previous forecast of 5.3%. As lockdowns ease, the service sector – which includes businesses such as restaurants and hotels – is driving the recovery in economic growth.


inflation rises

We Need To Talk About Inflation

José Ramón Díez (CaixaBank Research) | While expected, the rise in inflation is causing discomfort due to the high levels that have been reached and the risk of it persisting at those levels for longer than desirable without investors being startled. The key is whether we are faced with an economy that is simply skidding around as it seeks to accelerate from 0 to 60 in a short time, in which case inertia will allow it to easily regain stability; or, on the contrary, overheating caused by an excessively expansive demand-focused policy could test the strength of the economic engine.



Geopolitical risks for 2019

Will a Struggling Global Economy Survive the Coronavirus?

Atul Singh | The coronavirus outbreak is putting a clearly unsustainable global economy to the test.Coronavirus is China’s Chernobyl. It is finishing what Trump’s trade wars started. Global supply chains will change. Trade will slowdown. The decoupling of China and the US will continue. Even as these tectonic changes unfold, a global recession has become more probable.


After growing 3.2% in 2019, the global economy will expand 3.2% in 2020 and 3.3% in 2021

After Growing 3.2% In 2019, The Global Economy Will Expand 3.2% In 2020 And 3.3% In 2021

These growth forecasts are  dependent upon keeping geopolitical tensions in check, in addition to other risks threatening the world economy. Specifically, our scenario assumes that recent tensions between the US, Iran, and Iraq will have no permanent negative impact on the global environment. In particular, oil prices are expected to stabilize at about $61 per barrel over the next two years, below the average value recorded in 2019 ($ 64) or the current price ($ 68).