Renta 4 | Negative. Acerinox has published its results for Q1 2025, which reflect the slowdown in demand caused by uncertainty generated by tariffs in the United States, a circumstance that has caused Q1 2025 figures to be slightly below our estimates and those of the market consensus (Q1 2025 EBITDA €102 million, compared to Renta 4’s estimate of €111 million, and €109 million, consensus). Neutral/slightly negative impact on the share price. OVERWEIGHT (€12.5 per share).
Neutral. Guidance for Q1 2025 in line with expectations. 1) Geopolitical and tariff uncertainty continues to affect demand for stainless steel and high-performance alloys. 2) In the stainless steel division, the order book in the US is solid and Acerinox in Europe continues to make good progress in its recovery. 3) Stable demand for high-performance alloys in the US and lower volumes in Europe. 3) EBITDA for Q2 2025 higher than in Q1 2025 at €102 million.
Neutral. Net debt expected to increase to €1,195 million, compared to €1,120 million in 2024, mainly due to the €40 million impact on NAS cash from the depreciation of the dollar.
Markets: 1) United States (neutral): final demand remains stable. Imports decline slightly to a 27% share versus 28% in 2024. Inventories are low compared to the average of recent years (down 19%). Trade defence measures remain in place, extending to final products with high stainless steel content. 2) Europe (negative): inventories are rising due to increased imports, which are raising their market share to 22% compared to 14% previously. Final demand is stable. There is concern about a possible significant increase in Asian exports to Europe due to US tariffs, which should push the EU to tighten safeguard measures and other protective measures. 3) High-performance alloys (negative): negatively affected by tariff uncertainty, impacting the launch of major projects. Demand from the electronics and automotive sectors remains stable, while the oil and gas sectors have come to a standstill due to the market situation, and aerospace has yet to recover.
