By Fernando Barciela | Board member at Ferrovial, amongst other Spanish listed companies, Juan Arena was President of Bankinter from 2002 to 2007. “The crisis comes when assets prices drop. Then we have to choose between debt haircuts or raising asset prices via inflation and money printing,” he says.
WASHINGTON | By Michael Gavin at Barclays | In a recently published chapter of the Equity Gilt Study, we presented evidence that trends in population dynamics has been an important driver of the ‘global savings glut’ that has depressed interest rates and boosted asset prices around the world during the past 30 years. We also noted that the world now faces a demographic inflection point, and that demographic support for saving, and by extension asset prices, should fade materially in the decades to come.
LONDON | By Keith Parker at Barclays | The recent risk aversion episode has raised concerns that global growth and inflation are continuing to fall. While the collapse in oil is flashing red, copper prices and industrial metals have had a more measured decline. Copper has historically been a good barometer for global production and is pointing to continued sluggish growth, but not another leg down.