BRUSSELS | By Alexandre Mato | EU finance ministers are meeting in Milan on Friday to focus on Ireland, Greece and Cyprus exit plan to leave their IMF-EU financial assistance programs. The much-needed debate about economic stimulus and growth is not on the agenda, nor will be Scotland, despite the thorny economic implications of an eventual yes vote in the upcoming referendum.
MADRID | By Julia Pastor | Soledad Pellón, analyst at IG Markets: “Spain is now in better conditions to start the recovery”
By CaixaBank Research | Tensions have eased in the sovereign debt markets of the periphery. The government is preparing to reform Spain’s public sector in 2013.
MADRID | By Tania Suárez | Analysts in Madrid think Spain’s risk premium is too high for the government to escape the fate of Ireland or Portugal. “Some sort of bailout” will be necessary before the end of next year.
“To avoid the euro zone spinning out of control, conditions imposed on Spain should be tailored to be fairly met. That inevitably involves further flexibility in its deficit goals,” says economist JP Marín Arrese.
MADRID | The weakness of Oliver Wyman’s Spanish banking test is similar to that of the national budget, economist JP Marín Arrese opines. Without growth, Spain could be rescued only to see risk premiums and credit costs decreasing. The threat of a depression would still loom.
Community jargon shows how mere wishful thinking is turned into what seems a rock-solid reality-to-be. The EU is full of expectations that never materialize. Yet, this shortcoming does not deter officials from bombastically naming policies or mechanisms as if there was no chance they might derail. Just take the rescue label so often applied to Greece. One takes for granted that once you are rescued from peril you can consider…
By Tania Suárez, Madrid | Global growth will remain below trend until later this year, according to JP Morgan expectations. Rates have dropped less than 50bp from their peaks in 2011 and are projected to fall further 20bp until late 2012. Developed markets authorities believe that “the limit of zero interest rates has eliminated the possibility of conventional action.” Meanwhile, emerging markets with still flexible rates, have “persistently high inflation…
By Tania Suárez, in Madrid | Alberto Matellán is director of strategy and macroeconomics at Inverseguros SVB. In a conversation with The Corner, he said that even if Spain doesn’t formally request a bailout, “it will be necessary some kind of intervention.” However, he points out that the possible Spailout would be met via different instruments, and that there is a high probability that a bailout for Italy comes in…