The trend in the variables observed indicates that the recovery of the Spanish economy continued during the first half of 2016. With nearly 80% of the information available for 2Q16, the MICABBVA model estimates that quarterly GDP growth (QoQ) will have completed one year at around 0.8%. If confirmed, this stabilisation in the pace of expansion would give an upward bias to the growth envisaged in BBVA-Research’s baseline scenario for 2016 (2.7%).
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Spanish 1Q GDP was released on Friday. Data were shameful and let me explain you why: in order to reduce the public deficit, the government transfered 2013 4Q public spending to 2014 1Q. So these last numbers are those they had tried to hide under the carpet. In the graph above, the blue and line represent private and public consumption, respectively.
WASHINGTON |By Pablo Pardo | The “paradox of thrift” that Keynes made famous is something as simple as this: if everybody works and saves, nobody will prosper. Nobody can endlessly produce unless someone else buys those products. This is what the IMF has demanded of Spain—more consumption. And, in order to achieve it, more credit. That means more transparent banks and less dividends, but also an ECB with a more accommodative stance in monetary policy.
MADRID | By Tania Suárez | After 38 months of consecutive losses, the Spanish Retail Trade Index increased by 2.2% on September as compared with September 2012. There is increasing evidence of a slight recovery in consumption, which opens the door of hope to merchants and tradesmen.
BEIJING | Great social and economic inequalities could jeopardise the plans of making of internal consumption the main engine of growth. The figures released before the end of the year warned of the growing gap between the rich and the poor.
By CaixaBank research team, in Barcelona | The US economy is leaving behind its vigorous start to the year and is on way to a weaker scenario than the consensus had expected at the end of April, after the publication of the gross domestic product (GDP) flash estimate for the first quarter. The main reason for this weaker tone lies in the loss of dynamism in the labour market’s recovery….