Olivia Álvarez (Monex Europe) | The EU, a significant laggardin Q1, starts to rise from the ashes. With below 10% of the total population having received at least one jab by the end of March, the European Commission entered negotiations with main suppliers to ramp up deliveries. As a result, the EC set ambitious goals to have 70% of the EU adult population vaccinated by the end of June, which accounts for 55%-60% of the total EU population.
As expected, the 4% quarterly contraction in the Spanish economy estimated by the consensus of analysts has been overtaken by reality. GDP registered a historical collapse of 5.2% in the first quarter due to the Covid-19 crisis. Until now, the biggest quarterly fall in GDP was in the first quarter of 2009 (-2.6%).
In the face of the economic slowdown due to the restrictive measures in place to stop the spread of Covid-19, Spanish companies laid off or terminated contracts for over 302,365 workers in March, which is more than 50% higher than the negative milestone of January 2009 (at the start of the last economic crisis) when there were almost 199,000 unemployed.This brought the total number of unemployed to 3.548.312. Finally, Spain’s labour market have lost 833,979 members up to March 31.
The coronavirus crisis could cost Spain 3.9% of GDP, in a mild scenario. But if the current containment and crisis measures are extended for three months, GDP could fall by up to 6 percentage points. And if they continue until summer, by almost 10. This is one of the conclusions of the report presented yesterday by Nuno Fernandes, Professor of Finance at IESE Business School.