“The ECB has raised rates to 2.25%. A widely anticipated decision, with few surprises and a stagflationary outlook… The debate now centres on the ECB’s next moves. Our economists believe this is the last hike of 2026, whilst the markets continue to price in a further hike in September and a third in early 2027”. By Antonella Manganelli By Antonella Manganelli, CEO of Payden & Rygel in Europe | The…
Reported by Consejeros Editorial Team Three years on, the European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to raise key interest rates by 25 basis points, from 2% to 2.25%. The decision is based primarily on the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. “The ECB’s rise in official interest rates came against a backdrop of stagflation. The move was also intended to…
Report by Renta 4 European markets opened lower (Eurostoxx futures down 0.5%) whilst US markets edged higher (S&P futures up 0.3%, Nasdaq futures up 0.4%) following falls of more than 1% yesterday, closing at session lows, and a flat session in Asia (Japanese Nikkei up 0.1%, South Korean Kospi up 0.1%) on a day when the main focus will be on the ECB, which we expect to announce its first…
By Josefina Rodríguez We expect the ECB to raise rates by 25 basis points at Thursday’s meeting, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, in line with market expectations. This move is likely to be presented as a response to a more persistent inflation outlook, driven by higher energy prices compared with the March forecasts. Although growth has weakened, the Governing Council is likely to emphasise the need to guard…
By Martin Wolburg At its meeting on 11 June, the ECB is highly likely to raise its key interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with its recent hawkish communication. Beyond that date, the monetary policy outlook becomes more complex, as the Governing Council must balance persistently high inflation with weakening economic activity. Inflation is rising, inflation expectations have rebounded slightly and the fall in real interest rates argues…
Report by Link Securities Isabel Schnabel, a German member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board, stated that the ECB should raise interest rates in June, even if peace negotiations with Iran result in an agreement. It should be noted that the ECB has kept its key interest rates unchanged for a year, but that inflation in the Eurozone stood at 3% in April, above the ECB’s 2% target….
CdM | The European Central Bank (ECB) has kept interest rates at 2% and acknowledges that “upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified”. However, it states that “the Governing Council remains well positioned to deal with the current uncertainty”. As stated in the press release following the April meeting, the eurozone entered this period of sharp rises in energy prices with inflation close to the 2%…
Link Securities | As announced yesterday by ECB analysts, median inflation expectations in the Eurozone for the next 12 months rose in March to 4.0% from 2.5% in February, reaching their highest level since October 2023. Furthermore, March saw the largest monthly increase in this figure since early 2022, when the war in Ukraine began. In March, the conflict in the Middle East, which has led to the blockade of…
Bankinter | Yesterday, the Eurogroup, made up of EU ministers of economy and finance, approved the appointment of Vujcic, current governor of the Croatian central bank, as the next Vice-President of the ECB. Vujcic, who has a distinctly hawkish tone, won enough support over other candidates such as Centeno (Portugal) and Rehn (Finland). De Guindos’ term expires next May, marking the start of a process of renewal of senior positions…
Link Securities | The ECB’s Financial Stability Report warned yesterday that high valuations in increasingly concentrated asset markets increase the risk of sharp price adjustments. In the report, the institution noted that, since April, global stock markets have reached new all-time highs and credit spreads have remained tight in historical terms. In addition, the ECB warned that market confidence could change abruptly due to a deterioration in the growth outlook…