ATHENS | By Macropolis | Greek building activity (as measured by the number of building permits) retained on a downward curve for the third straight month in February, retreating by 20.7 percent according to the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT).
ATHENS | By Macropolis |The crisis appears to have led to a substantial reduction in petty corruption, with its overall cost halving over the last five years, a recent survey conducted by Public Issue for Transparency International has found.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | We expect the ECB to stay on hold at next week’s Governing Council meeting, though we think the likelihood of further easing remains very elevated. Should the ECB decide to act, we remain of the view that cutting rates would be the preferred option. Furthermore, we believe its implementation is not straightforward, making it unlikely in the short term
LONDON | By Aroop Chatterjee at Barclays | Implied volatilities in a number of asset markets have been recently trading close to their lowest levels since 2007. This has happened despite prevailing uncertainties about the durability of US economic growth or the path of Fed policy.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | For the last four years many have touted increasing the inflation target to 4% as the best way to “cure” our ills. If I well recall, it started with the IMF, at least by its Chief-Economist Olivier Blanchard, who in an IMF publication wrote “Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy.”
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | In the last two years, the FED did not meet the inflation target (the same as the ECB, although the latter has a commitment of 2% tops), which has grown at a slower pace than announced –as we can see in the chart above (by Ryan Avent at The Economist).
WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | We are, again, in the midst of an earnings season. But, should we call it ‘earning season’ or ‘earnings exceed the forecast session’? Because companies tend to earn more than they expected, and also more than the markets’ forecast. Another nail in the coffin of the Efficient Market Hypothesis?
SAO PAOLO | By Marcus Nunes | In “The current state of the US economy explained in one chart”, Mark Perry shows the chart above. As I argued in “The previous peak is not the appropriate benchmark” (Parts 1 & 2), just because you´ve reached or surpassed the previous peak does not mean you have achieved a complete or full recovery.
SAO PAOLO | By Marcus Nunes | According to Per Bylund, “during the recent financial crisis, Sweden has emerged as one of very few financially sound economies.” However, now the country successfully rolled back its unsustainable but world-renowned welfare state.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | We expect Europe to experience a long period of moderate economic growth, coupled with very low inflation: for the EU28, GDP should grow 1.5% in 2014 and accelerate to 1.7% in 2015, while inflation should bottom at 1.2% in 2014 before edging up slightly, to 1.4%, in 2015.