MADRID | By The Corner | Experts at JPMorgan are less worried about near-term disturbances and flows and more about the medium-term outlook for economic growth. Over the past three years, the world economy has grown only at a 2.5% pace, below potential and thus not able to make up for what we lost in the recession. Each year, they keep forecasting that growth will rise to a 3% handle, but have been steadily disappointed.
MADRID | By The Corner | Real estate values are a function of cap rates (property yields) and income growth. In the tables following UBS illustrates their team’s rental growth forecasts for retail and office by country. The majority of markets are showing a modest improvement in rental growth with estimates more optimistic for San Franscisco and London office.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Let’s see some pictures showing how the Spanish labour market truly is at the moment.
ATHENS | By Macropolis | After tapping markets in April for the first time in four years, Greece is considering another bond transaction, which could take place as early as next week, according to reports. The first bond issue on April 10 was a 3-billion-euro, 5-year note in a syndicated sale that was heavily oversubscribed. The yield was 4.95 percent.
LONDON | By The Corner | The final estimate of the Barclays global manufacturing confidence reveals another improvement in June, as they had initially expected, from -0.10 to 0.05, the highest level since December last year. As anticipated in the preliminary readings, the rise was driven by improvements in manufacturing activity in the US, Japan and China, where the trend in the forward-looking new orders component suggested it should last well into the second half of the year. At the same time, activity in the euro area showed further signs of momentum loss, with expansion weakening in all the big five except for Spain.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Euro area “flash” June HICP remained unchanged at 0.5% y/y, in line with our and consensus expectations. Printing 0.51% y/y at two decimal places (very close to our 0.50% y/y estimate), today’s outturn is technically only very slightly higher than last month (0.49% y/y) and March (0.47% y/y). It remains nonetheless very weak indeed.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | The Spanish National Statistical Institute has recently published May’s CPI. The chart shows the 0.1% annual variation with respect to May 2013. Such variations determine a curious outcome on the price level, as the second chart exhibits.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Consumer confidence increased again in June, reaching positive territory for the first time since March 2005. The GfK consumer confidence index rose to 1 from 0 in May, in line with our expectations (consensus: 2). Improvements were generally broad-based, with ‘general economic situation over the last 12 months’ improving the most, up 2 points to -3.
SAN FRANCISCO | By Atul Singh via Fair Observer | With 61% of its population under 24, Africa’s greatest challenge is finding jobs for its youth. The continent needs to provide employment to 200 million people aged between 15-24. As per the World Bank, youth account for 60% of Africa’s unemployed. The African Economic Outlook records extensively how the young fare in labor markets. Lack of demand for labor, absence of meritocracy, and lack of proper training are the top three barriers to getting a job.
This article was originally published on Fair Observer.
MADRID | Bankinter Analysis | 3Q Perspectives. Economic cycle speeds up and, mostly, gains soundness and reliability. Global growth will consolidate in 2014/2015 by +3%/+4% with positive news for developed countries and less favorable surprises in emerging markets. Japan and India are the exception to this rule. Spain will also amaze and main economic risk will lie in regional regional integrity issues whose aftermath may be undervalued, regardless the final scenario.