MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | There was a deflation period in Europe at the peak of the crisis in 2008-2010. Demand policies all around the world erased it and prices increased to 3% annual rate. Then, the resulting austerity policies brought us back to deflation.
MADRID | By Julia Pastor | Telecoms were the first sector opening fire in the European M&A’s market with the purchase of Ono by Vodafone. Now it is the turn of the construction industry via the merger of the two cement makers global leaders French Lafarge and Swiss Holcim. Joining both businesses would result into a company valued at $ 40 bn, which is presumably to face an investigation by competition authorities. Tourism sector would also participate in the corporate ball by selling 49% of airline Alitalia to Arab Emirate’s Etihad.
LONDON | By François Cabau at Barclays Capital| The ECB stayed on hold this month. Keeping its easing bias, the Governing Council had a “very rich” and “ample” discussion on possible further easing measures. In our view, if expectations of a rebound in April HICP are not met, affecting the medium-term price outlook, the ECB may need to ease further.
MADRID | By Francisco López | Investors keep betting on European actives, even though the eurozone economies are facing some serious problems: deflation risk, unemployment records and even a possible war in Ukraine. Why does the European stock exchanges dominate analysts’ recommendations?
OP-ED By Julia Pastor | The term PIIGS was coined in the 90s to speak about troubled southern countries on the eve of their entry into euro zone. During the current crisis, the word has been recurrently used to point bailed-out economies. And it kind of hurts. No international institution has ever adopted the ‘P word’. Banks such as Barclays even banned their analysts to use it.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | The appreciation of the euro, in a deflationary context as the current one, may be the last push so as to cross the ECB’s red line and reach a Japanese style deflation. Macroeconomic variables don’t encourage optimism, especially because inflation in the euro zone is getting closer and closer to the ECB’s zero red line.
MADRID|Rafael Poch at La Vanguardia via Presseurop|At the start of her new mandate, Angela Merkel is putting the emphasis on Europe. And, as always, Europeans are expecting a lot from her. Will she go down in history as one of the great chancellors? It all depends on what happens in Europe.
MADRID | José Fernández Albertos at El Diario via Presseurop | European elections are transnational, but voting is determined by campaigns on local issues, and the political consequences of the election results are essentially local. This paradox is a major obstacle for European integration.
LONDON | By Nigel Morris at The Independent via Presseurop | A generation gap has opened up among Britons, with 41 per cent of 18-24 year olds saying they are firmly in favour of the UK’s EU membership or leaning towards support, compared to 32 per cent who are against, according to a new poll published in The Independent.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | We expect Europe to experience a long period of moderate economic growth, coupled with very low inflation: for the EU28, GDP should grow 1.5% in 2014 and accelerate to 1.7% in 2015, while inflation should bottom at 1.2% in 2014 before edging up slightly, to 1.4%, in 2015.