Morgan Stanley | As we indicated in our last real estate strategy report, this has been the worst sector in Europe in 2Q19 (oversold and with a relative performance of 3.5sd below its 12MA). This has been mainly motivated by concerns about the proposal to freeze rental prices in the city of Berlin (and its possible spread to other cities in the country) as well as the uncertainty regarding Brexit.
José Benito de Vega | Naturgy has enjoyed a very positive stockmarket evolution since the beginning of 2018, in which period its value has increased 43% compared to an 8% fall of the IBEX35. There are various factors behind his positive performance compared to the index, which was accentuated following the presentation of its Strategic Plan in June 2018. However, after the positive evolution of its shares, it is trading with elevated multiples and at a premium to the European sector which, in our opinion, does not take account of the regulatory risk.
Santander AM | Stock markets maintain strong profits this year. The strength of the profit taking as a result of the new tariff increases to China should not hide their good behavior along the year.
Bankinter | The private sectors credit stock increases +3.4% in April (vs +3.2% before). A strong performance in company credit stands out (+3.9% vs 3.6% before) as well as credit for buying houses (+3.6% vs +3.5% before).
In April 2018 both banks and utilities had practically the same PER, around 12.5. Since then there has been an extreme relative movement between them, with electricity companies getting more expensive and banks cheaper, analysts at M&G Valores point out.
José Ramón Díez Guijarro (Bankia Estudios) | Fortunately, in the EMU, with the exception of the second half of 2014, when the expected inflation expectations traded by the five year German bond reached negative territory, this deflation risk seems much more contained. This could be the principal difference between the European and Japanese economies.
Sam Theodore (Scope Ratings) | In this merger of German banks, the less problematic partner appears to be Commerzbank (graded A by Scope with stable perspective) rather than Deutsche Bank (graded BBB+ with negative perspective).
Shaun Riordan | President Trump is in trouble. He lost control of the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections. But Trump is not like most US Presidents. Moreover, he knows that moderating his position will lose his base and consequently the 2020 election.This is all bad news for Europe. Germany’s economy is already teetering on the edge of recession. Tariffs on car exports to the US (not to mention a no deal Brexit) would push it over the edge, dragging the rest of Europe down with it.
Alphavalue | Inflows from IPOs in European stock markets reached $35 bn, or what is the same, -37% compared to last year which makes this 2018 the worst year for IPOs since 2013, only surpassed by fateful 2016.
The European Commission authorise the merger in Holland between Tele2 and Deutsche Telekom without preconditions , which drove the European teleco sector yesterday. Until now the Commission had shown itself radically opposed to allowing corporate operations which imply a reduction from four to three in the number of operators in a country.