The ECB recently published a paper in which it reviews its monetary policy over the last 20 years. Among other points, the central bank says that interest rates in EMU countries could deepen further into negative territory before being counterproductive.
In their “European Banks: At a turning point?”, Morgan Stanley analysts explain that interest rates are still low but seem to have reached their bottom and that they don’t expect any further cuts to depo rates.
BOfAML | It is difficult for forward guidance to be credible when the institution is discussing whether any of its tools or targets are likely to be around in a few months. Embarking on a wide ranging discussion about monetary policy targets, communication and tools, with 25 relevant ECB board members, guarantees a cacophony. Volatility lies ahead for sure, we think.
Santander Corporate & Investment | Although the new deposit rate that is applied to bank liquidity in the ECB has increased 10 bp to -0.5%, the new tiering system will compensate for this increase and allow the European banks to reduce the interest from the previous -0.4% to -0.27%, as some 750 Bn€ remains exempt of payment (considering that part of the total of 788 Bn€ which supposes 6X the current reserve requirement of 131 Bn€ exceeds the excess of reserves of countries like Italy).
BofAML | A new Asset Purchase Programme may need new asset classes and the EUR460bn bank bond market fits that bill. We see bank bond buying as immensely complex and involving elevated levels of moral hazard. A market already featuring negative yields and Greek Tier 2 issuance does not need ECB intervention to function
The new capital requirements regulation (regulation CRR2 and directive CRD V) could improve the capital levels in European banks through its treatment of software intangibles, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. The changes would not come into effect until 2021/2022; depending on what the EBA says in 2020.
Bankinter | The private sectors credit stock increases +3.4% in April (vs +3.2% before). A strong performance in company credit stands out (+3.9% vs 3.6% before) as well as credit for buying houses (+3.6% vs +3.5% before).
Spanish Banking Association | According to the ECB, Eurozone deposits grew at 5% in March, the fastest recent rate. The growth rates for household and company deposits coincide at 5.7%. The deposits of public authorities grew above 11% in March.
Bankinter | The investment funds managed by Deutsche Bank Asset Management (DWS) have increased their exposure to Banco Santander (SAN). It is good news as it demonstrates the interest of international investors in the Spanish bank at its actual prices.
In April 2018 both banks and utilities had practically the same PER, around 12.5. Since then there has been an extreme relative movement between them, with electricity companies getting more expensive and banks cheaper, analysts at M&G Valores point out.