eurozone

Markets 4th December 2014

Eurozone faces an interest rates scenario highly dependent on ECB’s monetary policy

MADRID | The Corner | Risks for the Eurozone have significantly intensified in the last six months. According to experts at Afi, the reduction of the risk premium and more benign monetary conditions are not enough to boost the economic activity. The Euro depreciation, although stronger than the Dollar, was not as intense as that of other currencies, which suggests a moderate growth scenario for the export of the region. In such context, what is likely to happen with the interest rates in the next six months?

Markets 1st December 2014

US grows while the shadow of stagnation threats the EZ

MADRID | The Corner | The leading indicators of the manufacturing sector both in Europe and the US will be announced on Monday. China’s indicators showed an economic slowdown of the sector, which could force the government to implement new stimuli measures. Together with the service sector index, which has a bigger impact on the developed economies, these indicators will show -again, two divergent scenarios: 1) the American economy keeps on growing at a good pace after two quarters in which the GDP increased more than 4% on average, 2) the economy of the Eurozone continues its slow expansion, but there is a threat of stagnation, according to experts at Link Securities.

In Europe 26th November 2014

“European leaders need to act”, says OECD’s Head of EU and Eurozone

MADRID | By Sean Duffy | The latest economic outlook from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts a bleak outlook for Europe unless action is taken. The Corner asked Piritta Sorsa, Head of EU and Eurozone surveillance at the OECD about the increased sense of urgency, sovereign bond proposals and the necessity for consensus among Eurozone members.

Companies 25th November 2014

Ana Botín replaces Santander’s CEO after only 2 years in the job

MADRID | The Corner | Banco Santander CEO Javier Marín will leave eurozone’s largest lender after only two years in the role. Ana Botín, in charge of the bank after her father Emilio Botín died in September, announced Marín’s replacement by Jose Antonio Álvarez, who has spent the past decade as CFO. Ana Botín also made several changes to its board of directors. Shares in Santander rose 1.8% to 7.22 euros in Madrid following the announcement.

In Europe 24th November 2014

The euro area’s deflation inflexion point

LONDON | By Jim McCormick and Keith Parker (Barclays) | At the start of the year, we analyzed the risks of a prolonged bout of deflation in the euro area (Japan-style deflation in Europe getting harder to dismiss). Our broad conclusion was that the risks of deflation in the euro area were probably not materially different from the risks Japan faced in the mid 1990s. Perhaps more important, we felt investors should picture 1996-97 Japan when assessing the risks of euro area deflation today.

Markets 19th November 2014

Deflationary risk: Which countries are most likely to be impacted?

MADRID | The Corner | In a report by Atradius Credit Insurance, they say that the disinflationary trend is visible across the Eurozone, but not all countries are expected to face the same issues. Countries that have a large output gap and those that still have to implement the most reforms will face the highest disinflationary pressure. To create a list of the countries most likely to be impacted, we first select the Eurozone markets that have a budget deficit larger than 3.0%, as these are subject to the Excessive Deficit Procedure which forces them to implement fiscal and structural reform.

Spanish economy 18th November 2014

Eurozone absorbs 50% of the Spanish exports

MADRID | The Corner | One of the risks of the Spanish economy is the significant lost of dynamism in the Eurozone. The latest data of the balance of trade published on Monday explain such fear. Thus, the Spanish exports registered last September a year-on-year rate of 9.6% (-5.1% from the previous month).

In Europe 13th November 2014

Eurozone crisis is taking its toll on Spain

MADRID | By Francisco López | Spain is not an oasis inside the Eurozone. The 18 main private research services believe that the slowdown in the European economy is already taking its toll on Spain. Besides, they forecast that Spanish GDP will grow slower than expected in the last quarter of 2014 (0.4%) versus 0.5% of the third quarter or 0.6% of the second quarter.

In Europe 12th November 2014

Eurozone crisis: “Everybody´s talking” (except about money)

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | In “What caused the great recession in the Eurozone? What could have avoided it?” Philippe Martin and Thomas Philippon begin thus: There is a wide disagreement about the nature and cause of the Eurozone crisis. Some see it as driven by fiscal indiscipline, some emphasise excessive private leverage, while others focus on external imbalances, sudden stops, or competitiveness divergence due to fixed exchange rates, as the following quotes illustrate.

In Europe 10th November 2014

UK: let’s be more British, please

LONDON | By Víctor Jiménez | Raise the main interest rate? Certainly not. Or not yet, anyway. While the US economy is not showing clear signs of having overcome the assisted breathing phase (i.e. printing money or the recently wound up phase of quantitative easing that the Fed finished two weeks ago), the chances are that the Bank of England will keep the price of the pound at a very low level.

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