LONDON | Barclays analysts invite you to answer the following question: What action do you expect the ECB to take at its Thursday 5 June meeting? The survey closes at 10am London time on Thursday, 5 June 2014, and the results will be published at noon that day in the NY open edition of this publication.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Despite Italy’s PM Matteo Renzi is the only one fighting the hard EU economic line, Italian public debt reaches 135% of GDP. The country is required by the fiscal compact to return to 60% in 20 years, which would involve perpetual austerity for an entire generation at least. However, the problem does not only affect Italy but all the European Southern countries.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | ECB is going to cut its policy interest rate and/or announce targeted liquidity measures, with a view to support bank lending at the 5 June Governing Council meeting. In his remarks at the ECB Forum on Central Banking being held in Portugal, ECB President Draghi highlighted the risk of a negative spiral between low inflation, falling inflation expectations and credit for the euro area.
MADRID | The Corner | The rise of the far-right Front National will harm more the European project than any economic recipe imposed from Berlin. In the end, Germany is indeed setting hard conditions for the EU integration, but at least is favoring it, whereas France’s Marine Le Pen has a clearly anti European speech and intends to bring power back to the countries.
MADRID | By Jaime Santisteban | Investors looking for a safe heaven who bet on peripheral debt and stocks have seen their profits jump. “Holding Greek 10-year bonds has brought 20% profitability in just 4 months. Portuguese debt is also to highlight. Spanish 10-year bonds (over 6% profitability) are trading at a higher yield than the stock market index,” ATL Capital Strategy Director Marta Díaz-Bajo explains for The Corner.
MADRID | By The Corner | “I would like to stress that the risk of a self-reinforcing deflationary downward spiral consisting of falling wages and prices, as evoked by some, is also low, despite the present, very low inflation rates in the euro area. These are mainly a result of falling energy prices and the adjustment process in crisis countries,” European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said on Tuesday, playing down deflation risk. Anyway, what happened with the ECB’s 2pc inflation target?
MADRID | By Luis Alcaide, Luis Martí and Jaime Santisteban | Deputy Director General at the European Union’s Financial Services Nadia Calviño considers that the EBA must keep playing an important role in the coordination of the financial supervision. She believes that transparency is a key issue that must prevail within the process of the European integration in the Eurozone.
MADRID | By Julia Pastor | Amid the debate on the euro zone’s eventual japanisation due to low inflation levels, we wonder if Spain could be the first member state with severe signs of this illness. Inflation is near 0% since six months ago and markets’ expectations suggest an average price index scarcely over 1% for next five years, and under 2% in a decade. Along with Portugal, Spain is the EU economy having more price indicators’ components in red year-on-year rates, namely 40% against 20% of Europe’s average. That means that 2 out of 3 goods in Spaniards’ shopping basket are affected by deflation. Although good for the country’s competitiveness, there is a risk in the process of public as well as private debt deleveraging.
MADRID | By The Corner Team | Greek billionaire, investor, philanthropist and speculator Geoge Soros is well known for his pessimissm towards the euro and his enthusiasm for getting headlines. During a visit to London for his book tour, he made a case against the excess of austerity in the eurozone and critizised the recipes imposed by the German Parliament on its neighbours like Spain.
MADRID | By Ofelia Marín-Lozano and The Corner team | Mario Draghi seemed satisfied on ECB’s Thursday meeting when calling the euro zone an “island of stability” on the grounds that the region has returned to growth levels of 2011. Old Europe’s awakening is a reality. Its GDP increased by an annualized 1.2% and its four main economies -Germany, France, Spain and Italy- also saw their individual growth figures go up. But the truth is the euro area is not back to 2008 pre-crisis levels nor is expected to get there until 2015. Europe has lost weight in the global scenario and apparently will continue to lose importance in the future, its GDP representing two thirds of U.S.’s by 2030.