GDP

US recovery

What the market is really telling about the US recovery

LONDON| By Stephane Deo and Ramin Nakisa at UBS | At the time of writing, the Treasury curve is telling the potential US GDP growth rate is very low – in the neighbourhood of 1%. The 30-year real yield is at 1.09% (but dipped below 1% recently), the 10-year real yield is at a frightening 0.36%, and the 5-year-in-5-year yield, a good proxy of where the market thinks long-term growth will settle, is at 1.05% (but also dipped below 1% recently).Taking those numbers at face value, we would have to conclude that the current recovery is doomed, and that growth will level off soon at a very disappointing level.


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Spanish GDP: The crystal clear lie

MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Spanish 1Q GDP was released on Friday. Data were shameful and let me explain you why: in order to reduce the public deficit, the government transfered 2013 4Q public spending to 2014 1Q. So these last numbers are those they had tried to hide under the carpet. In the graph above, the blue and line represent private and public consumption, respectively.


imf projections for spain s gdp growth chartbuilder copia

Spanish recovery glass only half-full

BARCELONA | Joan Tapia| That the Spanish economy grew by 0.4% quarterly in the 1Q14, and by 0.6% yearly is a real green shoot. After several years of recession, GDP is to grow moderately, around 1% in year 2014. However, employment continued falling by 184,000 people, at an annual pace of 0.5%. A slap in the face for those who told the recovery was more intense than expected.



Bank of Spain

Spain reaches 0.4% GDP 1Q growth –the fastest rate in 6 years

MADRID | By Julia Pastor | Spain grows slowly but at a firm pace. Bank of Spain estimates that the country’s GDP increased by 0.4% in the first three months of present year against previous quarter when it rose 0.2%. This also means that year-on- year rate climbs by 0.5% reaching positive territory for the first time after nine consecutive quarters falling. After a painful recession, the government was euphoric to announce the biggest leap forward in six years.

 


No Picture

Market chatter: down the road to a banking union and much more

MADRID | By Jaime Santisteban | In a crucial day for the long-awaited banking union in Europe, market makers also chattered about many other issues, like the Bank of Spain -which has denied it plans to subject Spanish lenders to stress tests this month- achieving less tough criteria for Spanish banks in the upcoming EU stress tests.


gdp plus 1

GDP plus should be GDP less

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | For less bounce! The Philly Fed has called the measure of GDP obtained from “crushing” the usual measure of GDP (expenditure based) and the income-based measure GDI GDP plus


No Picture

Spain Prudently Pulls Out of Recession

MADRID | By Tania Suárez | Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy announced a discreet upward revision of the GDP for the Spanish General State Budget. Thus, the government raised their growth forecasts from 0.5% to 0.7%.


Queer policy economy2

A “queer policy” indeed

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | That´s because it can´t be simply called “policy”. Over time the Fed´s economic growth projection has been falling, and after it drops a few notches the Fed introduces something “new” (or “surprising”).