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World economy 15th July 2014

Q2 Earnings preview – easier FX, sequentially a bit better growth and hurdle rate has come down

MADRID | By The Corner | Yet again this year equities have moved higher despite negative EPS revisions. While JPMorgan started the year with a constructive outlook on equity markets, they believed that for the 4th year in a row IBES projections would need to be downgraded. The investor concern now is that negative revisions could continue into H2, similar to the trend observed in Europe in each of the last three years.

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In Europe 14th July 2014

What if we are in a 2% growth world?

MADRID | By The Corner | Experts at JPMorgan are less worried about near-term disturbances and flows and more about the medium-term outlook for economic growth. Over the past three years, the world economy has grown only at a 2.5% pace, below potential and thus not able to make up for what we lost in the recession. Each year, they keep forecasting that growth will rise to a 3% handle, but have been steadily disappointed.

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In Europe 30th June 2014

GfK points to maintained strength in household consumption in Q2

LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Consumer confidence increased again in June, reaching positive territory for the first time since March 2005. The GfK consumer confidence index rose to 1 from 0 in May, in line with our expectations (consensus: 2). Improvements were generally broad-based, with ‘general economic situation over the last 12 months’ improving the most, up 2 points to -3.

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Spanish economy 14th June 2014

Morgan Stanley: “Is already Spain the new Germany?”

MADRID | By The Corner | Spain’s public debt grew 7.12 percent in 1Q14 to 989.9 billion euros, which is 96.8 percent of its GDP. The government’s debt went up 8.4 percent from the first three months of 2013 to 864 billion euros, accounting for by far the largest share of the total, according to Bank of Spain figures published Friday. Morgan Stanley analysts emphasize the changes of macroeconomic prospects and the increase of forecasts in peripheral countries. From its analytics department, growth levels for Spain, Portugal and Ireland were raised on Monday.

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World economy 19th May 2014

Yet another delay in the long-awaited global growth acceleration

LONDON | By Barclays analysts | 2014 was supposed to be different. After three years of disappointment, this was meant to be the year when the global economy had a broader, higher and more persistently solid level of growth – at least, this was the consensus narrative. In the end, the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of global growth in Q1 was among the weakest of the recovery. US growth was near zero (probably negative after revisions) and China’s GDP growth was below already low forecasts.

China Picking the Low Hanging Fruit of Reform

World economy 11th March 2014

China: Omnipresent Scarcity

China is reaching a crucial point in which both the Communist Party and the citizens must define what they want to be and in which direction they want to move. The human costs of three decades of rampant growth are huge and the country is facing pressing challenges such as environmental pollution, deep social inequalities and weak employment opportunities. It may be time for China to start figuring out the puzzle of allocating resources in a country of 1.3 billion people.

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World economy 8th March 2014

China: Eyes on the Prize

BEIJING | By Andy Xie via Caixin | Poor economic data in China will make the short-sighted howl, but policymakers know it is really a sign of rebalancing – and raising per capita incomes.

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In Europe 7th March 2014

Sleeping euro zone slowly awakens

MADRID | By  Ofelia Marín-Lozano and The Corner team | Mario Draghi seemed satisfied on ECB’s Thursday meeting when calling the euro zone an “island of stability” on the grounds that the region has returned to growth levels of 2011. Old Europe’s awakening is a reality. Its GDP increased by an annualized 1.2% and its four main economies -Germany, France, Spain and Italy- also saw their individual growth figures go up. But the truth is the euro area is not back to 2008 pre-crisis levels nor is expected to get there until 2015. Europe has lost weight in the global scenario and apparently will continue to lose importance in the future, its GDP representing two thirds of U.S.’s by 2030.