DWS | The Japanese stock market index, the Nikkei 225, has surged by around 25% since the beginning of the year and, at almost 50,000 points, is approaching its all-time high. The driving factors are not just euphoria over Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the weak yen, but also a new political realignment in Tokyo. Following the election this week of Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister and the formation of a…
Norbolsa | The US and Japan are preparing a $550 billion investment agreement linked to tariff cuts, particularly on cars. The plan targets strategic sectors such as chips and rare earths, although differences remain: Washington demands a written agreement and Tokyo prefers a flexible compromise. Trump presents it as a victory for the US, while Japan insists on mutual benefits. Despite the lack of clarity, Prime Minister Ishiba has gained…
Bankinter | GDP grew 1.0% (quarter-on-quarter) in Q2, beating consensus estimates and paving the way for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Japan’s growth in Q2 has been a positive surprise, exceeding consensus forecasts of 0.4% growth. In addition, growth in the previous quarter has been revised upwards to 0.6% (quarter-on-quarter) from -0.2%. Growth was led by business investment, which rose by 1.3% in the quarter, while consumption…
Link Securities | US President Donald Trump announced yesterday a trade agreement with Japan that will result in the imposition of 15% trade tariffs on Japanese imports, instead of the 25% tariffs announced in the initial letter. Government officials from both countries confirmed that this tariff reduction will also apply to automobiles. Trump said Japan agreed to open its agricultural and automotive markets to US companies. Bloomberg quoted a senior…
Banca March | Japan will receive a ‘reciprocal’ tariff of 24%, in addition to the 25% already implemented on cars. As Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba pointed out, the automotive industry is a ‘pillar’ of its economy. In an effort to ease tensions, Ishiba and Trump spoke on the phone, reflecting Japan’s willingness to seek an agreement. Scott Besset, US Treasury Secretary, expressed his expectation that Japan would be treated as…
Bankinter | Japan’s GDP surprised positively in 4Q 2024. GDP was up 2.8% (quarter-on-quarter annualised) versus 1.1% estimated and 1.7% previous (revised from 1.2%). Quarter-on-quarter was up 0.7 against a 0.3% estimated and 0.4% previous (revised from 0.3%). Our team’s view: Good news. The Japanese economy is growing more than expected, which together with inflation clearly above the 2% target (up 3.6% in December), will allow the BoJ to continue…
Capital Group | The winds of change are blowing in Japan. Corporate reform, wage growth and the digital revolution are ending decades of deflation and driving the market to highs not seen since 1989. Policymakers are urging companies to put shareholders first, and the government has created a digital agency to close the innovation gap with other countries. Digitalisation is a key issue to overcome demographic problems and boost productivity….
Bankinter: Japan’s Trade Balance went into surplus in June. It stands at ¥224,000M vs -¥185,700M estimated and -¥1,220,000M estimated. The indicator surprises and enters surplus unexpectedly. However, its breakdown shows a weak evolution. Exports slow down, despite the weak yen (+5.4% year-on-year from +13.5% previously and versus +7.2% estimated), and Imports (+3.2% year-on-year from +9.5% previously and +9.6% estimated). It is precisely the slowdown in this last item, which points…
Banca March: Aukus is a strategic military alliance between three countries in the Anglo-sphere: Australia, the UK and the US. The United States, Australia and the United Kingdom are seeking to add Japan to their strategic alliance known as Aukus. Initially, this strategic military alliance between the three countries was intended to help Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines and, unofficially, to counter China’s power in the Indo-Pacific region. However, prior to…
Bankinter : January CPI in Japan reaches +2.2% year-on-year vs. +1.9% expected and +2.6% previous. Underlying: +3.5% vs. +3.3% expected and +3.7% previously. Analysis: The price indicator decelerates for the third consecutive month, although it defies expectations in both readings. This slowdown is mostly due to a mirror effect in energy prices (-12.1% year-on-year). Since, after the strong rebound in energy, as of February 2023, the government implemented subsidies to…