No Picture

The Japan macro trade: Watch Japanese investors in 2014

LONDON | By Jim McCormick, Anando Maitra and Sree Kochugovindan at Barclays | Nearly a year ago to the day, the LDP and its leader, Shinzo Abe, won a landslide victory in the Japanese elections. Since then, it has been an extraordinary twelve months for Japan. GDP growth is set to be the highest of all major economies, by a good margin. Inflation and inflation expectations are at the highest levels in some time. The equity market has surged 75% since the election, and the trade-weighted yen has fallen 30%.

pmi euro japan

In a Glimpse- PMI and Central Bank Actions

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | Markit´s PMI survey is a favorite of central banks and financial institutions. The panel below shows both the global (comprised of 32 countries) and the Eurozone and Japan PMI´s. Trichet´s rate increase ‘folly’ of April and June 2011 as well as Draghi´s “ECB will do whatever it takes” of July 2012 are marked. So is the “Abe effect” in Japan.


Abenomics work

BARCELONA | By CaixaBank research team | Our scenario expects this expansion to continue in 2014 since the effects of the Bank of Japan’s quantitative easing should continue until well into the coming year.

Asias economic rising

Asia Rising: A New Competitive Landscape

By Ray Kwong  | Broad strokes, when you’re talking about the 21st century possibly becoming the Asian Century, one thing becomes crystal clear: it’s not preordained and it’s not just all about China. With its varied cultures and emphasis on education, self-reliance and upward mobility, Asia may overtake the West as the world’s economic engine.

No Picture

The US is not Japan, JP Morgan argues

MADRID | Three years have passed since the US took hold in mid-2009 of something of an economic recovery. The green in the green shoots has been paler than first thought, though. JP Morgan analysts in Spain released today a note saying that, by GDP per capita standards, we are witnesses of the weakest rebound the US has lived since World War Second. In the JP Morgan chart, populations has…

ph japan meltdown

Japan’s recovery needs sustainability

By CaixaBank research team, in Barcelona | The upswing exceeded expectations with a first quarter GDP that grew by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter and 2.6% year-on-year. This momentarily places Japan at the head of advanced economies in terms of growth. However, the forecast for the whole of 2012 hardly reaches 2.5%, as the composition of the national accounts raises doubts regarding the sustainability of the upswing. Unusually, the growth of the first…


Japan on the horizon

By Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | Peeking into Japanese modern economic history is a must for most Europeans, since we are plunging into the same mud waters that country has gone through for twenty years. Japan seems to have succeeded in leaving the 1990 crisis behind, a crunch not altogether different from our predicament. On the positive side, there is the fact that now we know it could have returned…