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Will the Increase in the Consumption Tax Derail Abenomics?

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | The WSJ has a piece which closely reflects the consensus view on the matter: “Japan´s Sales-Tax Boost will Test Abenomics”: The tax increase is designed to pay for Japan’s ballooning social-welfare costs and to pare its huge public debt, which, at more than twice the size of the economy, is the largest among rich nations.

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The next stage of the Japan trade

LONDON | By Barclays analysts | There appears to be increasing market doubt over the sustainability of the “Japan trade”. Year- to-date, the yen has rallied more than 3%, while the Nikkei is down 11%, placing it among the worst performing indices of the year. This is due in part to concerns over the impact of the forthcoming fiscal drag as the VAT hike takes effect on April 1st.

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Shiller backs Abe and Roosevelt… what’s Merkel say on that?

MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Nobel laureate economist Robert Shiller discusses the issue of the so-called “animal spirits” and what should be done in order to pump trust. He uses a visit to Japan as a base to show how effective the politics by Mr. Abe were. Japan is the country that has reduced the gap with the potential GDP.

Is deflation a trap Revisiting the Japanese experience

Is deflation a trap? Revisiting the Japanese experience

LONDON | By Michael Gavin at Barclays | The recent decline of headline and core inflation in the US and Europe has intensified interest in the economics of deflation, particularly the perceived danger that Europe may be headed for a deflationary episode. Deflation is particularly unsettling for many policymakers and market participants because of the theoretical risk that it may render monetary policy ineffective, creating a ‘liquidity trap’ from which it may be very difficult to escape.

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The Japan macro trade: Watch Japanese investors in 2014

LONDON | By Jim McCormick, Anando Maitra and Sree Kochugovindan at Barclays | Nearly a year ago to the day, the LDP and its leader, Shinzo Abe, won a landslide victory in the Japanese elections. Since then, it has been an extraordinary twelve months for Japan. GDP growth is set to be the highest of all major economies, by a good margin. Inflation and inflation expectations are at the highest levels in some time. The equity market has surged 75% since the election, and the trade-weighted yen has fallen 30%.

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In a Glimpse- PMI and Central Bank Actions

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | Markit´s PMI survey is a favorite of central banks and financial institutions. The panel below shows both the global (comprised of 32 countries) and the Eurozone and Japan PMI´s. Trichet´s rate increase ‘folly’ of April and June 2011 as well as Draghi´s “ECB will do whatever it takes” of July 2012 are marked. So is the “Abe effect” in Japan.


Abenomics work

BARCELONA | By CaixaBank research team | Our scenario expects this expansion to continue in 2014 since the effects of the Bank of Japan’s quantitative easing should continue until well into the coming year.

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Asia Rising: A New Competitive Landscape

By Ray Kwong  | Broad strokes, when you’re talking about the 21st century possibly becoming the Asian Century, one thing becomes crystal clear: it’s not preordained and it’s not just all about China. With its varied cultures and emphasis on education, self-reliance and upward mobility, Asia may overtake the West as the world’s economic engine.