Bankinter | Japan’s GDP surprised positively in 4Q 2024. GDP was up 2.8% (quarter-on-quarter annualised) versus 1.1% estimated and 1.7% previous (revised from 1.2%). Quarter-on-quarter was up 0.7 against a 0.3% estimated and 0.4% previous (revised from 0.3%).
Our team’s view: Good news. The Japanese economy is growing more than expected, which together with inflation clearly above the 2% target (up 3.6% in December), will allow the BoJ to continue raising rates.
Our estimate is that it will make two more rate hikes this year of 25bp each to 1.0% at the end of the year (versus 0.50% currently).
