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monetary policy

ecb

Markets 24th April 2014

Waiting for QE (hope it’s not like Godot)

MADRID | By Ana Fuentes | ECB policy makers are increasingly open about an eventual QE. Executive Board Member Benoît Coeuré was recently interviewed by French newspaper Le Monde. He weighed in austerity measures taken, and how could the ECB influence the level of the euro. As the central bank seems to be actually leaning towards unconventional measures, bonds and equity markets have already anticipated any announcements by Mario Draghi. But some fear what would happen if it was only lip service. What happened with the “whatever it takes” to preserve the eurozone’s integrity? 

No Picture

Markets 23rd April 2014

If only Citi was right and QE came…

MADRID | By The Corner | When Autumn comes, so will QE. At least that’s what economists at Citigroup are predicting. “We believe that the chances of unsterilized large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) of public and private assets being launched this year have (…) increased to more than 50:50,” they said in a note on Tuesday. How much of a stimulus shot are we talking about? To have any effect it should be of at least 1,000 billion euros ($1,381 billion), they note, which would lift the inflation rate toward the ECB’s “below, but close to 2% target”.  It could always be a decaffeinated step as some market makers are warning, but the truth is many on both sides of the Atlantic are hoping for Mr Draghi to make a move.

BoE

In Europe 23rd April 2014

BoE raises expectations (and ECB misses them)

MADRID | By Ana Fuentes | As ECB officials spend their time debating what form of QE the euro zone needs to fight deflation risk (note that although its inflation target is 2%, the central bank keeps on sitting on its hands while its balance sheet is shrinking), more data point to the positive effects of unconventional measures on growth. Check this one recently published by the Bank of England: the mere announcement of a QE shot corresponding to 1% of GDP caused a 0.36% real GDP increase and a 0.38% CPI rise in the U.S. ­–a little less in the U.K. Indeed, hope can move mountains… and money.

 

No Picture

World economy 3rd April 2014

Disinflation, interest rates and risks to monetary policy

MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | In the last two years, the FED did not meet the inflation target (the same as the ECB, although the latter has a commitment of 2% tops), which has grown at a slower pace than announced –as we can see in the chart above (by Ryan Avent at The Economist).

No Picture

Markets 3rd April 2014

Market chatter: ECB’s talking yet non acting

MADRID | By Jaime Santisteban | “The IMF nor politicians will have influence on the ECB as long as Mr. Draghi is running it” Link’s chief analyst J.J. Figares points out. As expected, the monetary authority announced on Thursday that it will stand still in spite of deflation tensions, maintaining interest rates at an all-time-minimum 0.25 % and choosing not to use the little ammunition it has left. However, Mr. Draghi left the door open for stimulus if needed.

debt

Markets 16th March 2014

Land of the Free and Home of the Debt

WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | Does anybody remember where the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index was five years ago? At 666. Since then, the S&P 500 has gone up a whopping 175 percent. The market has defied fiscal cliffs, Republican obstructionism, three rounds of Quantitative Easing, the start of the Fed’s ‘tapering’, the change in Chinese leadership, the euro near-collapse, a nuclear catastrophe in Japan, a wave of revolutions in the Middle East, and even a Russian invasion of Crimea.

No Picture

Markets 13th March 2014

Today’s Talk Of The Market In Spain

MADRID | By Jaime Santisteban | BBVA takes a look on the bright side of the Spanish economy in 1Q14: growth, exports, domestic demand, labor market, public spending reduction. Santander urges the EU to hasten arrangements on SRM to meet Banking Union agenda. Otherwise, stress tests won’t have credibility.