Madrid | The Corner | Despite last bad figures of the Eurozone economy, European stock markets are rising on expectations of ECB further action. However, it seems that ECB will wait to see if the actions taken until now and the TLTROs of September and December will take effect. Meanwhile, both Barclays and UBS analysts trust in these measures to support European recovery.
MADRID | The Corner | JPMorgan’s economic outlook forecasts that global growth is taking hold around midyear and as a rebound from weakness the US and Japan is reinforcing a more modest acceleration in the Euro area and emerging Asia. If JPMorgan analysts are right, this episode’s contours should mirror growth pivots in earlier expansions (during 2003 and 1993).
MADRID | The Corner | The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index rose to 56.2 in July from 54.8 in June to signal a faster increase in activity at Spanish services companies during the month. The sharp expansion in activity extended the current sequence of growth to nine months and Spanish service providers saw new business increase at the sharpest pace since late-2006.
BERLIN | By Alberto Lozano | Despite of the growing concerns following the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine towards the end of the month, the EZ manufacturing PMI index remains expanding in July (51.8), according to Markit data published today. Netherlands (53.5), Germany (52.4) and Austria (50.9) saw an acceleration of the growth, while Greece (48.7) continues depressed and France (47.8) keeps being the “Europe’s sick man” and the main brake to the European growth. With the worst figure in Europe, the French manufacturing sector even contracted in July at the fastest rate since December. Meanwhile Ireland (55.4), followed by Spain (53.9), registered again the sharpest rate of growth, supporting the eurozone manufacturing recovery.
MADRID | The Corner | Thursday’s Eurozone PMI data for July provide welcome relief after a series of weak short- term indicators, particularly for May, UBS analysts point out. While the PMIs for France remained soft, those for Germany and the broader Eurozone were much stronger again, signalling business activity close to three-year highs, particularly in services.
MADRID | By The Corner | PMI manufacturing in the Eurozone was weaker than expected (51.8 versus 51.9), except for Spain, whose PMI picked up to 54.6 from previous 52.9. The negative note was the French data, which plummeted 1.4 points to 48.5 thus maintaining the country in the economic contraction zone.
MADRID | By Jaime Santisteban | Tobin tax will be in place the beginning of 2016 at the latest despite the UK’s finance industry heavyweight challenge. The Spanish government called it a sensible and cautious measure. Crucial questions such as the level of tax or how to levy are still in the air.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | Markit´s PMI survey is a favorite of central banks and financial institutions. The panel below shows both the global (comprised of 32 countries) and the Eurozone and Japan PMI´s. Trichet´s rate increase ‘folly’ of April and June 2011 as well as Draghi´s “ECB will do whatever it takes” of July 2012 are marked. So is the “Abe effect” in Japan.
The French PMI fell by almost four points while Germany’s expanded. That’s bad news for the euro zone, whose core is in for trouble as an isolated German engine cannot pull its neighbours out of recession.
All the way from Afi analysts in Madrid, we got this simple and colourful chart comparing purchasing managers index figures of different countries in September 2011 (because it was the month when global manufacturing activity recorded the latest lowest levels) and March-April 2012, with a third column that brings up the variation between those dates. The fact is that cyclical divergence between the euro zone and the rest of the…