Alphavalue / Divancons | On Friday, the Government reached an agreement with ERC and Bildu on the Housing Law which, among other measures, eliminates the CPI as a reference index for the annual update of rental contracts and sets a cap on rent increases of +3% in 2024 (which joins the +2% in 2023 already approved), extends the declaration of the so-called stressed areas and lowers the limit for being…
Caixabank | Housing sales remain elevated (649,000 units in 2022, the highest since 2008) but there are emerging signs of deceleration of housing demand: in December housing sales declined by 10.2% year-on-year and new credit for house purchases declined by 14.2% year-on-year. We expect housing sales to decline sharply in 2023 (-24% to 480,000) mainly due to the impact of the increase in interest rates and the impact of higher…
Capital Madrid | There is no respite in the battle over the large print of the Housing Law or, more specifically, over the 3% cap on the annual rent increase in contracts. Unidos Podemos wants the bill to be permanent, while the PSOE only wants to extend it for the next year. The political deadlock is causing growing discontent among funds and companies in the sector. Meanwhile, the government complains…
Bankinter | House Prices fall -0.8% in Q4 (quarter-on-quarter) vs. +1.7% previously. It is second-hand housing that has suffered the most in this quarter (-1.4 q/q), while new housing continues to increase prices (+1.9% quarter-on-quarter). In year-on-year terms, prices have slackened to +5.5% in 4Q 2022 (year-on-year) vs +7.6% in the previous quarter. Analysis team’s view: This is the first quarter that prices have fallen in Spain since 4Q20 (a…
Bankinter | Housing Transactions fell -10% in December (year-on-year) vs +11% in the previous two months. This is the first fall since February 2021. Thus, 2022 closed with 650k transactions (+15% vs 2021). On the other hand, according to the Land Registry, Housing Prices fell -0.4% on average in Spain in 4Q 2022 (q/q) vs +0.1% previously. Those of used housing fell by -1.1%, while those of new housing still…
The listed real estate sector has managed the crisis well and is in optimal conditions to face the coming years, according to the dominant opinion among the 300 experts gathered at the V Iberian Reit & Listed Conference held in Madrid. Dominique Moerenhout, CEO of EPRA – the umbrella organisation for listed real estate companies in Europe – said that, in such challenging times as the present, “in the coming…
Norbolsa | According to a panel of experts in the sector, in 2023 it is expected that, house prices will advance, albeit timidly, by around 0.5%, compared to last year’s 6%. Sales, meanwhile, after an impressive 2022 (650,000 operations, levels not seen since 2007), will fall by 14%, to 557,000. The housing market has to face higher interest rates, economic slowdown, higher construction costs and a weaker labour market, but…
Bankinter | According to data from the Internet real estate portal Idealista, rental prices rose a little more than 8.4% in December compared to the same month in 2021. This compares to an increase of 7.3% year-on-year in November. On a month-on-month basis, it was up 1.1% in December. Analysis team’s view: The increase in rental prices is in line with the CPI we estimate for 2022 (8.4% on average),…
MS | Bart Gysens (analyst) has this Thursday published a report reviewing his preferences within the European property market, positioning himself for a transition from an environment of rising rates to one of recession. Leverage is still the determining factor which the team uses to see where the value is and is not. But as we enter 2023, where the macros see a potential recession, thus driving a greater importance…
Fernando González Urbaneja | Disordered thinking is one of the characteristics of the Prime Minister. It is not necessarily a mistake, since this disorder makes it easier for him to adapt to reality, to change his criteria in accordance with the Marxian principle that these are my principles but if I have to change them…. The liberality with which Sánchez handles facts, data and statistics is astonishing. For example, he…