Redeia

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Current risks for Redeia: new proposal of 6.58% for FFR on electricity transmission and still uncertain effects of blackout

Renta 4 | The National Commission on Markets and Competition (CNMC) has presented a proposal for a new methodology to calculate the Financial Remuneration Rate for electricity transmission activities. Although the proposed 6.58% for the 2026-2031 period is an improvement on the previous rate of 5.58%, it is below the 7-8% requested by companies. Although it is in line with our estimate (6.55%), Redeia’s ability to improve profitability through operational…


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Redeia’s correction offers appeal: speculative purchase at €15; protective stops below €14.75

Renta 4 | Approaching interesting tactical levels, formed by the lows of January this year, which converge at €15.10 with the upward trend line from the lows of 2020. The chart below shows the reactions over the last ten years to exceeded readings in the weekly indicators, resulting in significant rebounds after a few months. We would place protective stops below €14.75, giving some margin to the aforementioned support zone.


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Redeia earns €390 million in 9M25, 4.6% less than in 9M24

Renta 4 | Revenue is slightly up in line with our forecast due to higher revenue from transport activity due to the application of the TRF published in the draft and new commissioning, which are partially offset by lower unit values and the amortisation of RAB, as well as good performance in Peru and Chile offset by the exchange rate in Brazil, while turnover continues to decline in Reintel due…


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Redeia 9M25 results preview: net profit estimated to increase 1% to €392 million

Deutsche Bank | Redeia will publish its first quarter results on 29 October. Excluding Hispasat, we see moderate growth in EBITDA and net profit, with EBITDA up 3% year-on-year to €951 million (€923 million last year) and net profit up 1% to €392 million (€389 million last year). We note that, given the way Redeia presents its results, eliminating the two-year lag, this already reflects an expected increase in the…


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Red Eléctrica asks CNMC to make changes to electricity operating system to prevent another blackout

Bankinter | Red Eléctrica (REE), the group responsible for managing Spain’s electricity grids, has asked the National Commission for Markets and Competition (CNMC) to urgently process – within five days – its proposal to change some of its electricity system operating procedures in order to prevent another blackout. Among other measures, it proposes that all conventional power plants with the capacity to regulate electrical voltage – essentially nuclear, gas, combined…


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S&P could downgrade Redeia’s rating within three to six months depending on remuneration framework and planned investments

Link Securities | Credit rating agency S&P maintains uncertainty regarding Redeia’s credit rating and states that there is a 50% chance of downgrading its rating within three to six months, according to elEconomista.es. The outcome will depend on three key factors: the final design of the National Commission for Markets and Competition’s remuneration framework, the schedule and volume of investments defined in the next Transmission Network Development Plan 2026-2031, and…


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Redeia: poised for upside after EPS downgrades due to disappointing regulatory proposal; recommendation raised to Overweight

Morgan Stanley | Our analyst Arthur Sitbon changes Redeia’s recommendation to OW, seeing the shares poised for a rebound after discounting regulatory and blackout risks. He notes that its underperformance has been partly due to negative EPS revisions following a disappointing regulatory proposal, which now sets a floor for expectations, although he does not expect major changes in his base case scenario. He identifies an earnings inflection point in 2025,…


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CNMC announces remuneration proposal for 2026-2031 regulatory period: Redeia’s revenues would grow to €1.858 billion

Bankinter | The CNMC (National Markets and Competition Commission) has published its remuneration proposal for Redeia’s electricity transmission network business for the next regulatory period 2026-2031. The proposed financial remuneration rate is 6.46% (against 5.58% previously) and includes significant investments in the network for this period. As a result, Redeia’s regulated income would grow from €1.217 billion forecast for 2025 to €1.858 billion in 2031, representing an average annual growth…


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Redeia president says Red Eléctrica to make record investments in new strategic plan

Link Securities | Beatriz Corredor, president of Redeia (RED), which is holding its General Shareholders’ Meeting on Monday, announced in an interview with Expansión newspaper that the holding company that owns Red Eléctrica will make record investments in a new strategic plan and that the electricity system will emerge stronger after the blackout. The newspaper notes that Corredor, two months after the blackout, criticised the role of the electricity companies,…


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Redeia blames power companies for blackout

Bankinter | Redeia presented a report on Wednesday with its view of the causes of the blackout. Redeia chairwoman Beatriz Corredor justified the presentation of the report on the grounds of the company’s ‘legal obligation’ to produce such a document whenever a significant event occurs. The report points to a lack of energy absorption in the system, which caused a power surge. Absorption is a mechanism that allows some power…