By David F. Lafferty (Natixis) | Over the last few months, we have written, spoken, and tweeted incessantly about the coming headwinds to both the global economy and the capital markets. In July we noted that despite the current macroeconomic momentum, there are many factors that are likely to hamper growth by the time we get to late 2019 or 2020. These include tighter monetary policy that will actually begin to pinch growth, fading tax-cut and fiscal stimulus (especially if the Democrats take the US House of Representatives in the midterm elections), continued trade and export headwinds, a Brexit supply-shock to the UK and EU, and so on.
The Corner | March 10, 2015 | Markets will need to get used to the Greek conundrum, experts at Link Securities commented, that is why euro area bonds are going to look more attractive than stock in today’s session. (Picture by Álex García.)
MADRID | The Corner | The pace of Global net EPS revisions has declined in August to -6.9% from -0.6% in July, although it is more significant the 3-month net earnings revisions that has improved from -7.9% to -7.0%, according to Hugo Anaya in his comment for JP Morgan.
MADRID | The Corner | Latest published polls in Scotland, in which the rejection of independence is not at 53%, could reassure investors who fear political instability in the rest of Europe. Today will be scarce in macro data. Only wait for August final inflation data in Germany and France, and weekly U.S. jobs data. European stocks will look into Wall Street, which will be setting the pace.
MADRID | By J. J. Fdez-Figares (LINK) | After the rises experienced by the European and American stocks on Monday, these markets showed yesterday certain weakness, leading to a mixed closing in the major indices in Europe and negative in US. Thus, and since the beginning of the day in Europe some profit taking by the short-term investors were observed, who profited from the rebound that many values experienced on the day before. As there was a lack of relevant developments in the three main geopolitical conflicts (Ukraine, Iraq and Gaza), the investors’ attention turned to macroeconomic data, particularly towards indices released yesterday by the German institute ZEW.
MADRID | By Jaime Santisteban | Spanish Treasury broke a new record on Thursday amid the ECB’s easing hopes. “Spanish bonds reduced spread vs. the equivalent German benchmark almost 20 points in just a couple of days. Stock markets are moving forward without a clear direction, although uncertainty is smaller than in public debt markets” The Corner senior analyst Francisco López explains.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | You cannot control financial stability and real economy with just one instrument. I guess the Fed is hoping for excesses to get fixed by themselves, but macro-prudential policy is failing again. Markets are giving their backs to reality. The bad news is that a sudden stop would put us all in hell.
By Carlos Díaz Guell, in Madrid | May 15, in Madrid, was bank holiday in commemoration of its saint patron San Isidro. But the stock market was opened. The IBEX 35 closed that session at 6,700 points, ranking at September 2003 levels. Drawing on the daily exchange rate of that day, the drop so far this year (fall, thud, even crash if the readers would rather use a harsh word) has been of 22.27 percent and over 53 percent from November 2007. The…
By Carlos Díaz Guell, in Madrid | Spain, its public debt as much as its equity markets remain a paradise for investors on short positions who bet demand will go down, while investors interested in the long term just abandon the country because of the lack of reasonable expectations. They are not necessarily evil speculators but simply professionals representing many investors who seek higher returns to their capital and now Spain…