UK inflation


UK inflation falls sharply (6.8% vs. 7.9%) but core remains at 6.9%

Bankinter: July CPI slows down sharply, although core is still holding at 6.9% – CPI (July): +6.8% year-on-year vs. +6.7% expected +7.9% previously. Over the month: -0.4% month-on-month vs. -0.5% expected and +0.1% previous. Underlying: +6.9% year-on-year vs. +6.8% expected and +6.9% previously. Assessment: Inflation slowed significantly in July, in the first month with month-on-month falls in price levels since January. Of note are the falls in Housing (-4.1% month-on-month)…

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UK CPI stands at 7.9% year-on-year in June, first time below +8% in over a year

Banca March: The latest UK inflation data has surprised on the downside as it has moderated more than expected. The UK economy’s CPI slowed its pace of growth in June, rising +7.9% year-on-year versus +8.7% the previous month. In addition, the underlying rate also showed positive signs as it moderated by two tenths to +6.9%, with services inflation also moderating by two tenths to +7.2%. These data surprised on the…

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IMF forecasts UK will avoid recession in 2023, but inflation slows less than forecast in April

Banca March | The IMF forecasts that the UK economy will avoid recession in 2023. Specifically, the body now expects growth for the current year of 0.4%, compared with the slight decline previously expected (-0.3%). The managing director of the Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, thus announced yesterday that the British economy values the evolution of the country’s economic situation particularly favourably compared with other G7 countries. The revision is mainly due…

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UK inflation eases to 10.1% in March, less than 9.8% expected; core unchanged at 6.2%

Bankinter : March CPI stands at +10.1% in March (year-on-year) vs +9.8% estimated and +10.4% previous. The core rate is at +6.2% (year-on-year) vs +6.0% estimated and +6.2% previous. On the other hand, new home sales in London fell -39% in 1Q 2023 (year-on-year), according to real estate firm Molior London. They are at 10-year lows. Analysis team’s view: Bad news. Inflation eases, although less than expected in March. The…

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0.5% annual CPI UK inflation. Good news?

BRISTOL | Guest post by Tony Yates (Long and Variable) | That’s what George Osborne’s twitter feed would have you believe. And it was echoed by Andrew Sentance. Statements like these are at odds with modern monetary macro, and they are pretty irresponsible.

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Things to watch before lunch: UK inflation report, EZ production data

MADRID | The Corner | Euro area industrial production, the BoE Inflation Report and UK labour market data will be watched closely today. Barclays analysts expect euro area production to rise 0.7% m/m in September, partially offsetting August’s sharp drop. The Inflation Report is likely to shed light on recent BoE policy decisions, including possible downward revisions of its inflation and unemployment forecasts. UK consumer inflation fell to 1.2 per cent in September, a hefty 0.5 percentage point lower than the BoE expected just three months ago.

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UK: let’s be more British, please

LONDON | By Víctor Jiménez Raise the main interest rate? Certainly not. Or not yet, anyway. While the US economy is not showing clear signs of having overcome the assisted breathing phase (i.e. printing money or the recently wound up phase of quantitative easing that the Fed finished two weeks ago), the chances are that the Bank of England will keep the price of the pound at a very low level. 


Morning coffee: Germany’s ZEW, UK inflation, and much more

MADRID | The Corner | Don’t expect big changes in stock markets’ behaviour today: everyone is waiting for the main events of the week, that is, any move from the US Federal Reserve (FOMC meeting ends on Wednesday) and the Scotland referendum on Thursday. Just note that Germany is releasing ZEW index today, which gauges big investors and analysts’ confidence in the EU’s main economy. In the UK we’ll have consumer prices for August.


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UK inflation sharp jump fuels expectations of rates hike

MADRID | The Corner | UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) grew by 1.9% in the year to June 2014, up from 1.5% in May, according to official data released on Tuesday, almost reaching the Bank of England’s 2% target and strenghtening the case for a rise in interest rates which have been held at a record low of 0.5%.