Bankinter : March CPI stands at +10.1% in March (year-on-year) vs +9.8% estimated and +10.4% previous. The core rate is at +6.2% (year-on-year) vs +6.0% estimated and +6.2% previous. On the other hand, new home sales in London fell -39% in 1Q 2023 (year-on-year), according to real estate firm Molior London. They are at 10-year lows.
Analysis team’s view: Bad news. Inflation eases, although less than expected in March. The headline rate remains above 10% and the core rate unchanged. This will most likely lead the BoE to raise rates further in May, by +25bp to 4.50% vs. 4.25% currently. In this environment of higher financing costs, the housing market is likely to continue to deteriorate.
