Michael Klein via The Conversation | Going back to a gold standard would create new problems. For example, the price of gold moves around a lot. A year ago an ounce of gold cost $1,457. The pandemic helped drive up the price by 40% to $2,049 in August. As of Nov. 18, it was about $1,885. Clearly, it would be destabilizing if the dollar were pegged to gold when its prices swings wildly. Exchange rates between major currencies are typically much more stable.
We enter the second half of the year with the cases of Covid-19 increasing uncontrollably on the American continent and in a very worrying way in the United States. The growing political uncertainty, accentuated by the trade conflict between US and China, puts the dollar in an unusual situation.Without falling into excessive pessimism, UBS AM Chief Strategist Evan Brown analyses in detail the current state of the currency and reveals his tactical positions given the current scenario.
Ranko Berich (Monex Europe) | “After months of the greenback rallying on bad news as investors sought safe havens, it seems like the uniquely bad domestic COVID-19 situation has finally caught up with the US dollar. It is the end of the quarter, but today’s price action nonetheless has a feel of the dollar’s chickens coming home to roost.
Julius Baer Research| Thanks to significant fiscal support measures, China was able to keep its annual growth rate stable at 6.7% and even accelerate its quarterly expansion rate from 1.2% to 1.8% in Q2 2016. China has several options to manage the expected slowdown ahead: fiscal spending, interest-rate cuts and renminbi devaluation will be able to limit the cyclical risks ahead.
Zhong Zhengsheng | The yuan has depreciated further against the U.S. dollar recently, with the central parity rate on July 6 hitting the lowest level since November 2010, at 6.68 yuan for every dollar.
Marc Chandler via Caixin | The U.S. dollar has had a rough few months. It has fallen against most major and emerging market currencies this year. A critical issue for global investors and policymakers is whether the dollar’s uptrend is over or is this just a respite. Much is at stake with the answer.
Vincent Chan via Caixin | The Hong Kong dollar has been under pressure recently. On January 20, the value of the currency plunged to an eight-year low of 7.8228 to the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the stock market’s benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 3.8 percent from the previous day to 18,886.3, the lowest level in 42 months.
WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | Do you want a Who’s Who of the Republican talking heads? If so, go to this list. Those are the luminaries that asked the Federal Reserve not to go ahead with the Quantitative Easing in 2010, for fear of inflation and currency debasement. Four year later, inflation is nowhere to be seen, and, according to the IMF, the US dollar has strengthened its role in the monetary system.
By UBS Global Macro Team | Our proprietary surprise indices for growth and inflation are still enjoying very tight correlations with the prices of a wide range of global financial assets. The gyrations of our global and regional growth indices for instance closely track equity markets, both developed and emerging. Global growth surprises (excluding the US) closely track – and often lead – the US dollar and oil prices. Eurozone growth surprises closely track – and often lead – the euro. And global inflation surprises closely track the price of gold.