US economic growth

Federal Reserve

Jobs and growth data won’t deter the Fed’s resolve

J.P. Marín-Arrese | Last Friday, Wall Street jumped on employment and services data. Jobs openings, while better than expected, signalled a downward path. The service sector contracted for the first time till 2020. The ensuing bullish reaction shows the markets bet the Fed might undertake a U-turn earlier than pointed out in the last FOMC minutes. Investors seem to outwit the Fed, disregarding its determination to keep rates tight enough…

germany US fall

USA And Germany: The Engine Of The Two Western Locomotives Is Seizing Up

The economic growth of both economies has fallen sharply in the Q2 of the year due to the coronavirus restriction measures. Germany’s GDP saw a decrease of 11.7% on yoy rate. The country was plunged into the deepest recession in post-war history. On the other side of the Atlantic, the US GDP was down 32.9% in annualised terms, the biggest fall since the current historical series began in 1947. Spain and France accompany them with record contractions of 22,1% and 19%, respectively.

Stock markets

Global economy gains further momentum with September leading indicators

The latest set of September PMIs published yesterday showed that global economic growth momentum will remain very strong until year end, with the US, Europe and Japan set for even higher growth in Q4 2017 and only a minor cooling of economic growth in China. This bodes well for a continuation of US rate normalisation in December 2017.


Secular stagnation

What’s happened to the Secular Stagnation thesis?

As the global outlook improves, many people ask what’s happened to Larry Summer’s hypothesis of Secular Stagnation, which says there are clear signs that the economic world has been “cooling down” for decades. And currently, everything seems to make us think that the recovery we have on our doorstep is not going to be strong or long-lasting.


Weak Investment in the US

There are a lot of indicators which basically show that the US economy is strong, but it’s a “weak” strength, since it has been unable to maintain average growth of 2%. A weakness I see in the US economy is investment: in the second quarter it declined, which is not a sign of strength.

janet stanely

Well Done Janet, Well Done Stanley

James Alexander via Historinhas | Where are the John Maynard Keynes’ and Milton Friedman’s when you need them? The Fed, led by Janet Yellen and Stanley Fischer, has made a huge mistake in tightening monetary policy. The other members of the FOMC are largely irrelevant noise, with the possible exception of the NY Fed’s Dudley, though all carry blame.