LONDON | By Barclays analysts | A new equilibrium has emerged where the Fed has managed to anchor front end rates via rates guidance while preparing markets for tapering. This environment remains risk friendly, but its stability is vulnerable to the speed of the recovery.
SAO PAULO | By Benjamin Cole at Marcus Nunes’ Historinhas | It is an old trick question: What state has not one but two of the 12 regional banks of the United States Federal Reserve System? Is it New York state, the nation’s financial, commercial and manufacturing powerhouse when the Fed was founded in 1913? Answer: Missouri.
LONDON | By Michael Pond and Chirag Mirani at Barclays | Some at the Fed believe that a higher inflation target could be a good strategy, though one that is difficult to communicate. Instead, in our view, it has an implicit near-term tolerance for above-target inflation; forward breakevens should be higher as a result.
By Benjamin Cole at Marcus Nunes’ Historinhas | Recently Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser opined that even periods of mild deflation could be welcome in the United States, and that Fed should have but a lone goal, and ideally that is zero inflation.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | It is encouraging that Obama may soon have to fill up to 5 slots in the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. Maybe it´s expecting too much that he´ll think that´s a very important thing to happen at times like the present. He´s already ‘failed’ in a previous instance when he had 3 slots to fill, leaving them open for a long time and even failing to get an appointee approved! The low quality of some recent Fed Governors is glaring.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | Professor of Economics James Hamilton reviews new research on “Summarizing monetary policy.” He talks about the existence of a “shadow” short-term interest rate in the U.S. economy that might in some circumstances be quite negative.
MADRID | By Adrianna Rodriguez* | The past year has been rocky for the United States, to say the least: Edward Snowden released the most significant leak in recent history; German leaders now think twice about their after hours phone calls, and the US spent about $24 billion on a national tantrum. It’s simpler to say that the country has finally lost all credibility in European eyes, however, that’s not necessarily the case. How is it that Washington can go through all this nonsense and still appear on top?
BERLIN | By Andreas Rinke at Cicero via Presseurop | Beyond the outrage, the American spying scandal should serve as a wake-up call to the Europeans. Just like the first Soviet satellite pushed the Americans to go into space, these revelations should motivate the Europeans to catch up in information technology.
MILAN | By Alessandro Plateroti at Il Sole 24 Ore via Presseurop | Viewed from Europe, the NSA spying scandal is eroding US credibility and standing. But from the other side of the Atlantic, it is the EU’s continuing inability to solve the economic crisis that is worrying American decision-makers.
NEW YORK | By Ana Fuentes | We’ll probably need to wait until November to see any obvious effects of the U.S. government shutdown in the employment data. The last jobs report released on Tuesday show 11.3 million workers who wanted a job and were looking couldn’t find one in September. Payroll employment increased (+148,000), but unemployment rate changed by very little (7.2%).