BoAML | We have remained quite bearish on Euro area inflation for the past few years, particularly compared with ECB forecasts (but also consensus), and have highlighted the many downside risks to the inflation outlook.
F. Barciela/ F. G. Ljubetic | Labour costs in Spain stagnated during the crisis, but the idea that they eventually have to rise again has quite a few supporteres, including many businessmen. It would even be a postive driver for consumption and the economy general.
Ofelia Marín-Lozano | Spain’s public deficit stood at 5.18% of GDP, missing the target set by Brussels (4.2%) by one percentage point. So the deficit should not be higher than nominal GDP growth, which can be estimated at around 3% in the long term.
MADRID | July 5, 2014 | By Fernando González Urbaneja | It’s been one of the costs of the crisis: an internal wage devaluation. Over the last year and half of the economic recovery, with the country’ GDP growing more than one percentage point above the EU average, Spain managed to create almost a million new jobs, almost one-third of what was lost.
MADRID | June 10, 2015 | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | Spanish unions and employers’ organisations signed a two-year-agreement this week to raise salaries, the first hike in three years. Both parties had been debating for months while the government, distant yet vigilant, recommended a raise combining purchasing power with productivity.
The Corner | April 2, 2015 | La Caixa Research | Competitiveness gains in the Spanish economy are set to persist as wage increases continue to lag behind other euro zone countries.
FRANKFURT | By Lidia Conde | Martin Gornig is deputy head of department of Firms and Markets at the prestigious German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin. The Institute conducts a working group that advises the Minister of Economy Sigmar Gabriel with the idea of increasing investments in Germany. Gornig and his team released a report last summer on the possibility of stimulating growth in Europe without changing the Stability Pact. The proposal of DIW is to immediately mobilize the necessary investments “to boost growth in countries in crisis and avoid a new recession in the eurozone.” As France and Italy are demanding, the Institute bets on growth but warns that it should not be at the expense of a debt increase
LONDON | By The Corner | The Spanish Tax Agency published on Monday its monthly statistics on large enterprises. Experts at Barclays explain that among others, the May data show that wages dropped 0.3% y/y (sa and wda) for these firms. The average monthly wage increase in Jan-May period was -0.2% y/y, which coincides with the average monthly salary growth increase since the main 2012 labour market reform in Spain.
BERLIN | By Alberto Lozano | It’s not all about the deficit. If the eurozone wants to achieve the goal of sustainable growth, Germany also needs to shorten its chronic current account surplus, the world’s largest, which has led the country to accumulate capitals abroad amounting 100% of its GDP. Although this means dismissing one its economic miracle recipes -wage moderation-, Merkel will increase public workers’ salaries by 3% this year, +3X inflation.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | There was a deflation period in Europe at the peak of the crisis in 2008-2010. Demand policies all around the world erased it and prices increased to 3% annual rate. Then, the resulting austerity policies brought us back to deflation.