International organisations and the leading research departments are revising their growth forecasts upwards for the Spanish economy for this year and 2018. But at the same time, they note that Spain’s recovery is not reaching most wage earners.
From its pre-crisis maximum level, the real value of salaries has fallen 43 billion euros, mainly in the construction sector. On the other hand, in the services sector they have risen by some 5 billion euros. Since the start of the economic recovery, wages have increased below productivity rates. This has been particularly noticeable in the manufacturing sector.
BoAML | We have remained quite bearish on Euro area inflation for the past few years, particularly compared with ECB forecasts (but also consensus), and have highlighted the many downside risks to the inflation outlook.
F. Barciela/ F. G. Ljubetic | Labour costs in Spain stagnated during the crisis, but the idea that they eventually have to rise again has quite a few supporteres, including many businessmen. It would even be a postive driver for consumption and the economy general.
Ofelia Marín-Lozano | Spain’s public deficit stood at 5.18% of GDP, missing the target set by Brussels (4.2%) by one percentage point. So the deficit should not be higher than nominal GDP growth, which can be estimated at around 3% in the long term.
MADRID | July 5, 2014 | By Fernando González Urbaneja | It’s been one of the costs of the crisis: an internal wage devaluation. Over the last year and half of the economic recovery, with the country’ GDP growing more than one percentage point above the EU average, Spain managed to create almost a million new jobs, almost one-third of what was lost.
MADRID | June 10, 2015 | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | Spanish unions and employers’ organisations signed a two-year-agreement this week to raise salaries, the first hike in three years. Both parties had been debating for months while the government, distant yet vigilant, recommended a raise combining purchasing power with productivity.
The Corner | April 2, 2015 | La Caixa Research | Competitiveness gains in the Spanish economy are set to persist as wage increases continue to lag behind other euro zone countries.
FRANKFURT | By Lidia Conde | Martin Gornig is deputy head of department of Firms and Markets at the prestigious German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin. The Institute conducts a working group that advises the Minister of Economy Sigmar Gabriel with the idea of increasing investments in Germany. Gornig and his team released a report last summer on the possibility of stimulating growth in Europe without changing the Stability Pact. The proposal of DIW is to immediately mobilize the necessary investments “to boost growth in countries in crisis and avoid a new recession in the eurozone.” As France and Italy are demanding, the Institute bets on growth but warns that it should not be at the expense of a debt increase
LONDON | By The Corner | The Spanish Tax Agency published on Monday its monthly statistics on large enterprises. Experts at Barclays explain that among others, the May data show that wages dropped 0.3% y/y (sa and wda) for these firms. The average monthly wage increase in Jan-May period was -0.2% y/y, which coincides with the average monthly salary growth increase since the main 2012 labour market reform in Spain.