European capitals have welcomed with relief Macron’s victory in the first round of the French elections. But even if Macron’s lead in the first round seems comfortable enough, support for extremist parties represents more than half of total votes. This could lead to unstability in the country which Macron will need to be able to control.
Articles by JP Marin Arrese
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The European bail-out of our banking system saved its skin. Now, a decade later, parliament and the Bank of Spain are investigating what happened.
Trump’s attempt to get rid of the Obamacare health scheme has turned into a complete fiasco, and a similar fate might await his plans to revamp public expenditure. Trump’s own party mates share his will to reduce corporation tax, but have expressed deep concern about huge deficits. So much of the presidential agenda might end up in the dustbin.
By end March, the UK will trigger the nuclear button splitting it from the European Union. A landmark decision which will determine both parties’ future, irrespective of the side of the English Channel they find themselves on.
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In the aftermath of Mr Trump’s victory, stock markets surged, building on promises of strong stimuli and sizeable tax breaks. As time goes on, they are reappraising the short-term outlook, since fundamental changes may take more than one year to materialise. No wonder investors are turning cautious, cashing in on early gains.
Janet Yellen intends to hold firm against market pressure as her press conference showed yesterday. The 0.25% rise in federal funds was downgraded to a modest move, wholly anticipated by investors, while hinting at a moderate path in rate hikes over the next couple of years.
Most observers bet the Draghi would further extend its current asset purchase programme, shoring up confidence in the face of troubled times ahead. Some believed it might reduce the monthly volume, showing its intent to scale down little by little its massive balance sheet.
Referenda stand as a dangerous gamble nowadays. Only the Swiss can manage them with relative ease. Populism can boast of triggering another staggering crisis in Europe as voters rejected by a wide majority the Constitutional reform tabled by the Italian PM. Opposition to his initiative also came from fellow members of the Democratic Party, such as D’Alema, and respected politicians like Monti. Conceding defeat, Mr Renzi has resigned from office throwing the country into utter disarray.
Many take comfort from the prospect of higher inflation and rising interest rates driven by the fiscal stimulus the President-elect Trump promises to deliver. This will push the dollar up, endowing European exports with increased competitiveness. Yet the currency tailwind expectations might prove short lived as current debt levels curb any significant public deficit-led expansion.