A. Menut and A. Tentori (AXA IM) | Italian politics are back at centre stage, with Lega party leader Matteo Salvini unexpectedly triggering a government crisis and making way for what in many ways is yet another spurious coalition. The positive political climate, more European Union-friendly, together with non-negative – although weak – growth should be encouraging for markets.
Christine Lagarde, the nominee to be the European Central Bank’s next president, vows for the issuance of financial instruments that group bonds from different EU members which could act as refuge assets and increase the supply of bonds with high credit quality in the EMU.
This completes six months of the index on a downward trend and more than three years negative.
According the association of carmakers (Anfac), sellers (Ganvam) and concessions (Faconauto), sales of new cars and SUVs in Spain fell 30.8% year on year in August to 74,490 vehicles.
Bankinter | Iberdrola will enter the Stoxx 50 index on 23 September. The Spanish electricity company will form part of the Stoxx 50 index which groups together the 50 largest companies in 17 European countries, including Switzerland and the UK.
Niel Dwane (Allianz GI) | The response of central banks to the financial crisis 10 years ago may have saved the world from a devastating depression, but it also created a host of unforeseen effects – from more indebtedness to more economic inequality. Looking back at what we got right – and what went wrong – what lessons can we take away for the future?
By Nicola Mai (PIMCO)| Just as the hope in an arranged marriage is that people will fall in love, the hope 20 years ago was that the currency union would foster fiscal and political integration. So far, the European project hasn’t delivered what many had hoped, although the marriage is still holding.
Gilles Moëc, chief economist at Axa Group | Our key assumption is that Boris Johnson wants a deal, just a different one. That is in itself complex, but not yet impossible to achieve and get passed. If he is reconciled with the possibility of no deal, then the outlook is much grimmer. At this stage we want to believe that rhetorics should not be taken at face value. It is a close call. It has been our long-standing view that any resolution on Brexit is likely to entail elections – with the uncertainty it entails. We think the latest events have raised this probability.
Experts at UBP believe that fiscal stimulus or, more effectively, fiscal- monetary coordination presents the most potent upside catalyst to risk-assets.
The capital of Spain is one of the most cyclical markets in Europe and rents are still far from the previous peaks. According to Morgan Stanley, there is more upward potential in values with exposure to offices in Madrid. Besides, Spain is expected to grow above the European average.