BNP Paribas expects Spanish house prices lower than in audits’ base scenario

A drop of merely 10 percent in house prices between 2012 and 2014? BNP Paribas believes trends in Ireland and the US make the case for further value losses in Spain. Independent auditors of the Spanish banking sector Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger described their base scenario for the country's housing market in line with the International Monetary Fund's forecasts, and pointed at price falls of -5.6 percent this year, -2.8 percent in 2013 and -1.5 percent in 2014. At the French bank, analysts said Monday in an investor note th

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at a worse outcome is to be expected.

BNP Paribas experts consider instead falls of -19.9 percent in 2012, -4.5 percent in 2013 and -2 percent in 2014. House prices could drop by -25.8 percent comparing to 2011, which would mean -40 percent since 2006. Why? Well, that at least is what has happened in Ireland, with -48.1 percent, and in the US, with -32.8 percent so far.

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