The outlook points to the active deleveraging phase still having some way to go. It will then be followed – probably from 2017 onwards – by a period of passive deleveraging (lending growth below that of nominal GDP). That is consistent with a positive boost to GDP growth from credit, which is needed to sustain any increases beyond its potential – although more moderate – , given the prospect of fiscal adustments.
The importance of credit in the economic cycle varies from country to country. For example, it is related to how active the fiscal policy is or whether there is a relevant net savings position which can finance spending without the need for credit. Or whether there is a desire to take on debt to accumulate financial or real assets instead of spending.